2012-04-24 16:27:12 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Czech Republic Oil & Gas Report Q2 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
Despite its maturity, the German mobile market reported over 114mn subscribers in 2011, exhibiting the fastest growth rate since 2008. High prepaid net additions were largely responsible for this growth, reflecting trends in 2008. While the strong growth is an indication of the market's continued potential, BMI believes we will still see some connection deactivations in future as prepaid subscribers abandon their services.
In BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings, Germany moved up to fourth place. It jumped to sixth position in Q112. Germany's improving position is largely due to the continued growth in the market, underpinned by its strong Country Risks and Country Rewards scores. However, this quarter it was our decision to increase the Industry Risks score, largely based on positive signs
from the regulator, that improved its position. We have held reservations over the regulator's stance on incumbent Deutsche Telekom (DT) in the past, but developments in recent years have shown the regulator has improved its stance regarding access to DT's network.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/359375_germany_telecommunications_report_q2_ ..
We also believe that the decision to allow Liberty Global, which owns UPC Unitymedia, to acquire Kabel Baden-Wuerttemberg. Increasing competition in the broadband market is important, in BMI's opinion, as we expect this to be the area with the fastest growth over the next five years. Our forecasts for broadband growth see a CAGR of 8.7% in 2012-2016. Although mobile will remain the largest area of the market, its CAGR of 0.3% is markedly lower.
The end of 2011 saw faster growth than expected, with operators adding 2.1mn new subscribers, just less than the 2.2mn added in Q311. A strong performance by market leader Vodafone and T-Mobile in the second half of the year was responsible for this surge. Meanwhile, smaller operators E-Plus and O2 reported largely consistent subscriber increases through 2011.
Despite operators having discounted inactive SIMs throughout 2010, the fastest subscriber growth was reported for prepaid connections. BMI believes that, while these customers offer a short-term boost to subscriber bases, we will see many of these discounted in future as connections become inactive. The market's smallest operator, O2, reported faster growth in postpaid subscriptions, a trend it pursued throughout 2011. For longer-term viability, this is a better strategy for operators to apply.
Germany's wireline markets (fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV) also continue to exhibit strong growth trends. Although fixed-line connections are forecast to continue declining, large numbers of German households maintain a fixed-line connection, and BMI expects the increased prevalence of converged services packages containing fixed-line services to help limit further declines in subscriber numbers.
Meanwhile, the broadband market continues its rapid growth, with both increasing subscriptions and increasing revenues as higher speed connections generate higher ARPUs. Looking ahead we continue to forecast strong growth in fixed broadband, with cable firms benefiting the most because of their competitive advantage in high-speed broadband through investments in DOCSIS3.0. That said, fibre technologies are beginning to come to the fore and account for a growing number of net additions, although we do not expect it to become a major technology in the short term.
BMI also examines the mobile broadband market for those subscribers who use netbooks, smartphones and USB sticks to connect to the internet wirelessly via a high-speed (3G/HSPA) network. HSPA services have proved popular both as a dedicated broadband service, and for use with a smartphone handset, and will continue to underpin the value-added service development strategies of a number of operators. However, we expect the proliferation of LTE availability to gradually cannibalise 3G services because of the higher speeds on offer and the advantages to operators in terms of required investments.
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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