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East Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

East Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published

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2013-01-01 00:04:54 - East Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

The ongoing deterioration of the global economic backdrop will cap growth in the West Caribbean given the importance of tourism for the region. Despite broad economic recovery, the region´s fiscal and debt problems will remain protracted, although Puerto Rico´s fiscal reform means it will see faster improvement than others on these metrics. Elevated global commodity prices will continue to pose a risk to inflation trajectory across the region, with a number of countries importing the majority of their food and fuel, although sluggish economic growth rates will for the most part keep price gains muted.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our end-2012 policy rate forecast for the Dominican Republic from 6.00% to 5.00% on the back of declining inflation



and slowing credit growth.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risk: Tourism remains a key industry for the majority of West Caribbean economies, and a faster-than-expected recovery in developed markets could boost tourism receipts and overall growth rates.

Downside Risk: The major risk, in our view, is rapid inflation – particularly with regard to food prices – stemming from high commodity prices, which has the potential to spur social unrest.

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Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

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