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Egypt Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Egypt Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published

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2013-01-01 00:07:54 - Egypt Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

Egypt will most likely ´muddle through´ the end of 2012, in both an economic and political sense. Growth is likely to remain weak as a result of lower investment inflows, while the domestic political arena will continue to be characterised by ongoing tensions between President Mohamed Morsi and the military. With foreign reserves dwindling, the economy will become increasingly reliant on external financial assistance.

We expect Egypt to sign an IMF Stand-By Arrangement at some point in late 2012 or early 2013, and believe further foreign aid from the Gulf will also be necessary to avoid a full-blown balance of payments crisis. Given the economy´s deteriorating balance of payments position, we continue to project further losses for the Egyptian pound against



the dollar, and have set an end-2012 and 2013 target of EGP6.1500/ US$ and EGP6.5000/US$ respectively.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our 2013 real GDP growth forecast. In light of ongoing uncertainty in the political environment, we believe investment will remain weaker than previous anticipated. We project the economy expanding 3.1% in FY2012/13, compared with an estimated 2.3% in FY2011/12.

Key Risks To Outlook

A more pronounced uptick in violent protest activity would do significant harm to an already weak tourism industry, and could hold back a more pronounced macroeconomic recovery.

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