2013-02-28 15:04:36 - Fast Market Research recommends "Egypt Retail Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

The Egypt Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Egypt's economic outlook of ongoing policy uncertainty. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Egyptian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the generally weak outlook for the global economy heading into 2013 on the Egyptian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Egyptian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Egyptian per-capita consumer spending is forecast

to increase by 73.7% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of -2.7%. The country comes last in BMI's Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms slightly for Reward.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536439_egypt_retail_report_q1_2013.aspx


Among all retail categories, autos will be the outperformer between 2013 and 2016 in growth terms, with unit sales forecast to increase by 53%, from 0.19mn units to 0.29mn units. However, sales growth in the short term is likely to be constrained, with latest automobile sales figures from Ghabbour Auto (which has a 40% share of the Egyptian market) showing the number of units sold between January and March 2012 remaining below 2009 levels. Car ownership in Egypt is estimated at around 23 cars per 1,000 people, compared with 35 per 1,000 in Iran and more than 100 per 1,000 in Saudi Arabia, which means the country has considerable room for growth. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in trade tariff reform between Egypt and the EU, which will open the market for more overseas manufacturers and expand export opportunities for domestic producers.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* BMI is forecasting a slight acceleration in Egyptian real GDP growth over the coming quarters, with our baseline scenario seeing the economy expand 3.5% in FY2012/13 (fiscal year running from July-June), up from 2.2% in FY2011/12. Should Egypt sign a long-awaited IMF Stand-By Arrangement, we would expect the drivers of growth to change slightly. Household consumption would be likely to suffer due to hikes in domestic gas prices, while fixed investment should pick up as a result of greater clarity on the economic policy front.
* BMI is projecting growth in household consumption of 3.5% in FY2012/13, down from 5.9% the year before, as the government is forced to introduce a series of measures that may undermine consumers' purchasing power. In particular, hikes to domestic energy prices could have a pronounced impact on spending patterns, as households are forced to devote a greater share of their incomes to fuel. However, strong remittance inflows and the ongoing improvement in the outlook for the tourism sector (which is a key employer) will mitigate these effects.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
- BMI Industry View
SWOT
- SWOT
- Political
- Economic
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Egypt's Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
- Economic Analysis
- Household Consumption Outlook
- Government Consumption Outlook
- Fixed Investment Outlook
- Net Export Outlook
- Table: Egypt- GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- Risk Reward Ratings
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
- Market Overview
Regional Overview
- Middle East And North Africa Overview
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2009-2016
- Table: Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
- Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%)
Mass Grocery Retail
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format, %
- Table: Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Market Overview
Autos
- SWOT
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Egypt Autos Production, 2009-2016
- Table: Egypt Autos Sales, 2009-2016
- Table: Egypt Autos Trade, 2009-2016
- Market Overview
Consumer Electronics
- SWOT
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
- Market Overview
- Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
- Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
- Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Demographic Forecast
- Egypt Demographic Data
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
- Sources

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