2012-02-11 16:49:27 - Fast Market Research recommends "Estonia Business Forecast Report Q2 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available

Core Views After posting impressive real GDP growth of 8.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first half of 2011, we expect economic growth to slow in 2012 as the external environment becomes less supportive of Estonian exports. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2012 and expect that the mild recovery in domestic demand to preclude a more precipitous slowdown in the economy. We forecast Estonia's fiscal accounts to post a small surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2011 before turning to a 2.1% of GDP deficit in 2012. Expenditures will be elevated in 2012 as the government's mandatory spending obligations increase. However, revenues will rise in line with the economic recovery, and a higher tax on alcohol will see

tax receipts steadily increase. Underpinning our sanguine outlook for Estonia's political risk profile is that country's position as one of the most structurally stable emerging markets in the world. However, going into 2012, we highlight that the potential for a number of political risks to arise remains. In part, this is due to the country's status as a eurozone member state. Major Forecast Changes We have revised up our 2011 real GDP forecast to 7.0% from 5.0% on the back of a stellar turnout in the first half of the year. However, owing to a deteriorating external market, we have revised down our economic growth forecast to 3.3%, from 4.7% previously. Our forecast for the budget position has also been revised up. We now expect a fiscal surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2011 up from a deficit of 0.6% of GDP previously. In 2012, we see the fiscal account posting a deficit of 2.1% of GDP, wider than our previous forecast of 0.2% of GDP. Key Risks To Outlook As a member of the eurozone, Estonia remains highly exposed to the sovereign debt crisis; an intensification of the crisis would have a deleterious impact on Estonia's macroeconomic outlook. The Estonian banking system remains vulnerable, with non-performing loan rates near historic highs. An external shock could delay the recovery process.
About Business Monitor International


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/329406_estonia_business_forecast_report_q2_2 ..


Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.