2014-04-04 01:09:04 - Estonia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
Core Views We believe Estonia is on a sustainable growth trajectory following the deep recession brought on by the eurozone debt crisis, with economic growth to average 3.3% in the next three years before gradually settling towards long-term trend growth of 2.7%. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth over the medium term, as sluggish region economic activity hinders faster export growth.
We maintain a positive view towards Estonia´s fiscal trajectory, with total public debt to remain the lowest in Europe by a comfortable margin.
Popular support for Estonia´s ruling centre-right Reform Party, in power since 2007, has fallen significantly and is unlikely to regain previous highs. While the main opposition Centre Party will remain popular amongst the ethnically Russian
electorate, its support base has grown amidst criticism of the Reform Party´s liberal economic and tax policy, and now poses a threat to the Reform Party´s majority in upcoming Parliamentary elections in 2015.
Major Forecast Changes No major forecast changes Key Risks To Outlook As a member of the eurozone, Estonia remains exposed to any renewed flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis.
The extreme openness of the Estonian economy, where exports plus imports represented 184.4% of GDP in 2012, means economic growth will remain extremely sensitive to external shocks.
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