2014-01-03 16:27:39 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Estonia Freight Transport Report 2014"
Estonia registered a 0.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in GDP on a seasonally and working-day adjusted basis in Q3 2013, according to preliminary data released by Statistics Estonia (RTT News). This followed the 1% increase in GDP registered in Q2 2013. Economic growth was driven by the trade sector and supported by stable growth in retail trade.
Although headline growth in 2013 will fall short of the robust levels achieved over the past three years, Estonia's rapid and ongoing recovery from severe recession following the global financial crisis in 2008 continues to drive improvements in the domestic economy. Formerly propelled by growth in exports and fixed investment, the shape of growth in coming quarters will be weighted towards private consumption, propping up
economic activity until external demand gradually recovers.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/759066_estonia_freight_transport_report_2014 ..
With one of emerging Europe's best business environments and balanced growth in both goods and services exports, Estonia is well placed to take advantage of improvements in regional trade and investment flows in coming years. This is welcome news to the country's freight industry over the medium term. Indeed, the short term picture is also looking rosy with the air freight sector pencilled in for healthy growth of 8.7% as the outperforming freight mode. Road and rail will lag slightly on this at 4.97% and 2.54% respectively.
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 air freight tonnage throughput forecast to increase 8.70% to 28,490 tonnes.
* 2014 road freight tonnage throughput forecast to rise 4.97% to 34.13mn tonnes.
* Rail freight tonnage throughput projected to grow by 2.54% in 2014 to reach 47.02mn tonnes.
* Total trade (imports plus exports) in real terms is set to grow 6.25% in 2014.
* The Port of Tallinn will see gross tonnage growth increase 0.42% to 28.71mn tonnes in 2014.
Key Industry Trends
Katoen Natie Opens Complex In Estonia - Belgian company Katoen Natie opened a new 25,000m warehouse complex at the Port of Tallinn, Muuga industrial park, it was announced in May 2013, with the company's managing director, Mart Melles, stating that the complex would become a gateway for the exchange of goods between some central and eastern European nations and Russia. Rail Baltica Could Be Ready In A Decade - The Rail Baltica project could be ready by 2023, if construction began in 2017-2018, offering faster rail services in Europe, LETA/Public Broadcasting announced in September 2013. Rail Baltica project manager Indrek Sirp said: 'Let's say that according to an optimistic evaluation, it would be possible to travel in 10 years' time already.'
End-2013 Date For New Terminal At Sillamae - A new container and general goods terminal, spread over an area of 40 hectares and operated by Silsteve, at the port of Sillamae on Estonia's northern coast was set to be completed by end-2013, according to the marketing manager of the port company Sillamae Sadam, Andrei Birov. The new facility represents a total investment of EUR30mn (US $39.8mn) and is aimed at handling 1mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containers in the next five-to-10 years. Additionally, goods flows are projected at 30,000 to 50,000 TEUs during the first year of its operations.
Key Risks To Outlook
As a member of the eurozone, Estonia remains exposed to any renewed flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis. The extreme openness of the Estonian economy, where exports plus imports represented 184.4% of GDP in 2012, means economic growth will remain extremely sensitive to external shocks.
Despite a recent slowdown in headline GDP readings, the Estonian economy is well along a path of sustainable growth. Although its rapid recovery from severe recession following the global economic downturn in 2008 was characterised by export-led growth, economic activity will be increasingly driven by domestic demand in coming years. However, we retain a positive outlook towards the export sector as well, which will be able to increase its share of global trade on the back of strong competitiveness gains since 2010.
In addition to a diversified manufacturing sector, we believe that higher value-added services sectors will increase their presence in the economy. We retain our core view that Estonia will continue to be one of the best performing economies in the region, with sustainable growth contributing to a long-term convergence path.
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