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Finland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Finland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published

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2013-01-01 00:11:54 - Finland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

As we previously highlighted, growth will being to slow towards the second half of 2012 as wider eurozone growth softens and positive base effects recede fully. We have made further cuts to our Finland growth forecast, and now expect just 0.1% real GDP growth in 2012, and 1.6% in 2013. We believe that Finland´s fiscal situation remains one of the most robust in Europe, and do not expect it to suffer from a ratings downgrade in the near future. We expect it to remain one of just four remaining countries in the eurozone to be awarded AAA status from all three major ratings agencies.

Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded our forecasts for Finland´s economic activity, and now expect real GDP



growth of just 0.1% in 2012, from 0.5% previously.

Key Risk To Outlook

A deeper than anticipated eurozone recession represents a severe downside risk to our export forecasts for Finland. While we are already pencilling in a significant slowdown, a eurozone real GDP contraction of 1% or greater could severely impinge upon Finland´s highly integrated export market, weighing heavily on its real GDP growth in 2012 and 2013 as a consequence. While not our core view, due to the strong historical legacy of consensus-based political decision making in Finland, we do not rule out the possibility that the rise of the populist euro-sceptic parties could lead to more difficult domestic policy formation.

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Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

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