2013-01-01 13:40:54 - Finland Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

As we have previously highlighted, growth is expected to have slowed in H212 as wider eurozone growth softens and positive base effects receded fully. We have made further cuts to our Finland growth forecast and now estimate just 0.1% real GDP growth for 2012 and forecast minimal growth of 0.6% in 2013.

We believe that Finland´s fiscal situation remains one of the most robust in Europe and do not expect it to suffer from a ratings downgrade in the near future. We believe it will remain one of just four countries in the eurozone to be awarded AAA status from all three major ratings agencies.

Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded our forecasts for Finland´s economic activity and now expect real GDP growth

 

 

of just 0.6% in 2013, from a previous forecast of 1.6%.

Key Risk To Outlook

A deeper-than-anticipated eurozone recession represents a severe downside risk to our export forecasts for Finland. While we are already anticipating a significant slowdown, a eurozone real GDP contraction of 1% or greater could severely impinge upon Finland´s highly integrated export market. Consequently, this could weigh heavily on Finland´s real GDP growth in 2012 and 2013.

While not our core view, due to the strong historical legacy of consensus-based political decision making in Finland, we do not rule out the possibility that the rise of the populist euro-sceptic parties could lead to more difficult domestic policy formation.

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