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France Agribusiness Report Q1 2014 - New Report Available


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2013-12-05 16:51:51 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "France Agribusiness Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

We believe the grain sector in France will continue to outperform other agribusiness sectors in terms of production growth. This will be reinforced by the ongoing reforms of Common Agricultural Policy subsidies, which are likely to have more of an effect on dairy and livestock farmers than grain farmers. The agriculture minister's proposal to shift some EU subsidies from crop farmers to dairy or livestock farmers could support production growth in the latter, even though we do not see this as sufficient to turn around the current production trajectories of each sector.

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 12.7% to 40.6mn tonnes. We expect wheat to remain the most profitable crop in the country and the one most in

demand for domestic use and exports.
* Poultry consumption growth to 2017: 4.9% to 1.7mn tonnes. We see stronger long-term poultry demand than that for pork and beef because of poultry's generally higher affordability and reputation for better health benefits than red meat.
* Cheese production growth to 2016/17: 8.8% to 2.1mn tonnes. Over the longer term, we expect consolidation in the dairy industry to allow producers to take advantage of rising quotas and export demand. We also believe the European Commission's decision to adopt new legislation allowing producers to collectively negotiate contracts with processors will improve the profitability of milk production, in turn supporting output.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 0.0% (down from 0.1% in 2012).
* Consumer price inflation: 1.4% average in 2013 (slightly down from 2.0% in 2012).
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease to US$35.6bn in 2012/13.

Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723457_france_agribusiness_report_q1_2014.as ..

Industry Developments

We believe EU wheat prices have found a bottom around the EUR175/tonne level, in line with our view for CBOT wheat prices to bottom around the USc640/bushel level and for the global market to tighten from September onwards. On the technical side, the weekly relative strength index for EU wheat prices is now in oversold territory, indicating little room for prices to come down in the near term. Net speculative long positions for wheat are also at a record lows, and any concern over global supply will help prices higher in the near term.

French dairy company Danone plans to sell its industrial properties, including its Castelo Branco plant in Portugal, to US-based dairy company Schreiber Foods. The deal will also include the sale of Danone's facilities in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic. The Castelo Branco plant will continue its operations, according to the company, and 110 employees will be retained.

We expect pork supply in Europe to tighten significantly in the coming years and have again revised down our outlook for production in the EU on the back of recent data from Eurostat showing the pig population declining again in 2012. We now project pork production in the EU-27 to fall by 1.8% between 2011/12 and 2016/17. We believe the recent moderation in global feed prices will not be enough to help a recovery in production, as tighter animal welfare restrictions will increase production costs while recent free trade agreement negotiations with Canada and Mercosur could flood the market with cheap pork. Finally, the EU's largest export market is still Russia, which is aiming to reach self-sufficiency in meat production in the medium term, decreasing demand for pork products from the EU. Finally, we do not believe the EU will be well placed to supply the Chinese pork market in the near term.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Agribusiness
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: France Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: France Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: France Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: France Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: France Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: France Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: France Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: France Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: France Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: France Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
- Europe Machinery Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Prepared Food/Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Drink
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=723457&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.


Author:
Bill Thompson
e-mail
Web: www.fastmr.com
Phone: 18008448156

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