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Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report Q1 2014 - New Market Study Published

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2013-12-08 17:44:00 - New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMi ratings - Brief Methodology

political ratings

The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo? Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle - to what extent is this contributing to political

risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?

Full Report Details at
- ..

economy ratings

The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.

Business environment rating

The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.

Partial Table of Contents:

executive summary
chapter 1: regional outlook
Long- term political outlook
enduring Fragility across Francophone West africa
- the 16 states that make up francophone West africa have a variety of political systems; however - with the notable exception of senegal - all are characterised by weak institutions, poor governance and a history of unconstitutional transfers of power.
economic activity
Francophone West africa to underperform
- Poor business environments, stagnating oil production and a lack of economic diversification mean most economies in Francophone West africa will underperform their african peers over the coming decade, registering real G dP at an average annual rate of just 5.0% between 2014 and 2023.
chapter 2.1: political outlook - cote d' ivoire
Domestic politics
nationality Law to Boost Long- term stability
- While a law granting ivorian citizenship to many of the country's long-term immigrants will be controversial in the short run, BMi believes that the reform will help to address the ethnic divisions that have led to a decade of political crisis.
taBLe: poLitica L overvie W
chapter 2.2: economic outlook - cote d' ivoire
economic activity
Growth Momentum Maintained in 2014
- We believe that cote d'ivoire will be one of the fastest growing economies in sub-saharan africa over the coming years as the economy continues its impressive return to form following a decade of stagnation.
taBLe: econoMic activit Y
chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - cote d' ivoire
the ivorian economy to 2022
recovery Gathering steam
- While growth over the next 10 years is expected to improve on the previous decade, political uncertainty continues to exert a downward pull on the country's potential.
taBLe: LonG-terM Macroecono Mic Forecasts
chapter 2.4: Business environment - cote d' ivoire
Business environment outlook
taBLe: BMi Business anD operation risK ratinGs
Market orientation
taBLe: BM i L eGaL FraMeWorK ratinG
taBLe: L aBour F orce QuaLit Y
taBLe: aFrica - annuaL FDi inFLoWs
taBLe: traDe anD invest Ment ratinGs
operational risk
taBLe: top eXport Destinations
chapter 3: country reports
Domestic politics
regional crises threaten Border security
- The deteriorating situation in the Central African Republic has caused more than 100,000 people to flee the country into Cameroon, destabilising the country's eastern provinces. We expect the ongoing crisis to bolster cameroon's support for military intervention in its war-town neighbour.
central african republic
Domestic politics
French intervention Will not prevent economic collapse
- the institutional implosion of the central african republic ( car) will lead to a sharp economic contraction in the country, with headline GdP expected to fall by 13.9% in 2013 and recovering to positive growth of just 0.9% in 2014.
economic activity
economy switching Growth Drivers

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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