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Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report Q3 2013

Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - new country guide report published

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2014-02-19 08:11:01 - Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report Q3 2013 - a new country guide report on

Economic links between countries in Francophone West Africa are weak, and growth will vary across the region. We predict that the fastest economic expansion in 2013 will be in Côte d´Ivoire (where we forecast real GDP growth of 7.9%) and that Equatorial Guinea (where we foresee an economic contraction worth 1.2% of GDP) will be the worst-performing economy.

Growth will be faster in the The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) than in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) over the duration of our forecast period, but both blocs will under perform their economic peers elsewhere in Africa.

We predict brisk real GDP growth of 7.3% in Burkina Faso, but we stress that the country´s economy has many



structural weaknesses that could depress growth over the coming years.

Economic growth will remain relatively elevated in Cameroon in 2013 (we predict real GDP growth of 5.3%) due to high levels of foreign investment, but will decline towards 4.0% in later years as the current wave of investment passes.

Surging investment in the iron ore sector will make growth in Congo- Brazzaville highly volatile over the coming years, but we predict that stagnating oil production and a poor business environment will keep trend growth low.

Growth in Côte d´Ivoire is stabilising higher than we had anticipated, and we now forecast that real GDP growth will average 7.8% annually over the next five years. Côte d´Ivoire is UEMOA´s largest economy, and the recovery here is a key factor in the bloc´s outperformance compared to CEMAC.

Equatorial Guinea´s economy looks trapped in decline as the country´s oil production stagnates in a country that is almost totally dependent on the energy sector.

In Gabon, labour disputes are a growing concern as the country seeks to diversify its economy away from the oil sector. A week-long strike in March could be a sign of things to come.

Guinea´s economic future is highly dependent on attracting mining investment, but the country´s fractious political situation runs the risk of deterring potential investors.

Weak export growth in Senegal has led us to lower our medium-term growth forecasts for the country. We now predict that annual real GDP growth will average just 4.6% between 2013 and 2017.The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

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