2014-03-24 07:30:04 - United States Shipping Report Q4 2013 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
We maintain our cautiously positive view on the US shipping sector. We forecast contractions in throughput at both the port of Los Angeles and the Port of New York/New Jersey. We have revised down our 2013 US real GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.8%, which is mostly attributable to base effects from poor data readings in Q412 and Q113.
The downward revision to our headline real GDP growth number is partly the result of changes to our forecast for real net exports of goods and services. We have revised down our export growth figure, from 3.5% to 2.5%, due to back-to-back contractions in annualised real export growth in Q412 and Q313. However, we have revised up our 2013 real imports
of goods and services forecast from 2.8% to 3.3%, well above the 2.4% import growth posted in 2012.
We continue to believe that the US consumer is slowly - and sometimes unsteadily - gaining momentum after several years of weak activity, providing a welcome boost to container volumes at US ports. The biggest external risk is a collapse of the eurozone which would hit the US via a financial sector shock and via trade channels, with a negative follow-on effect on shipping volumes.
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