2012-05-20 17:07:41 - New Business market report from Business Monitor International: "Germany Real Estate Report Q2 2012"

The high level of exposure to the ongoing eurozone debt crisis suggests a more challenging economic outlook for Germany. However, barring another major recession as seen in 2009 (not our core scenario) we expect average annual growth through to 2016 to moderately exceed the growth recorded in the five years to 2011. Key will be the economy's ability to rebalance towards domestic demand, while avoiding a major meltdown in the eurozone.

The economic situations in all the cities we cover were looking fairly strong in 2011 (given the wider context, of course). Business sentiment was sturdy, employment was slightly improving year-on-year (yo- y) and the consumer appeared to be resilient. This was reflected in the real estate market, which in 2011

continued to perform robustly, with falling vacancy levels and rising rent levels defying the wider malaise in the national economy. The prime office market is in rude health, emblematic of Germany's importance as a leading global economy. The retail property market is the outperformer. The industrial real estate market was stronger in 2011 than in 2010. It seems that at the time of writing, with the severity of the eurozone debt crisis unchanged, but business sentiment slowly returning, 2012 may be more muddled, or at least less dynamic, than 2011.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/384844_germany_real_estate_report_q2_2012.as ..


Key Opportunities

* Take-up for commercial property in Germany was strong in 2011, absorbing new supply and reducing vacancy levels across the major cities. 2012 will be more muddled yet possibly a good time for businesses to plan and develop for Germany's expected strong growth across all subsectors.
* Demand is not met sufficiently by supply of quality property in premium locations. There are great opportunities for construction and development.

Key Threats

* The European debt crisis and a hard landing in China are raising the risk of a double-dip recession in the Western world. German property would be affected, in particular the investment area.
* While the consumer was surprisingly resilient in 2011, 2012 may mellow a little, particularly given the lack of a conclusion in the European sovereign debt crisis and the waning confidence in Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Germany Real Estate/Construction Industry SWOT
- Germany Political SWOT
- Germany Economic SWOT
- Germany Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
- Berlin
- Frankfurt
- Munich
- Dusseldorf
Real Estate Market Analysis - Office
- Supply And Demand
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents - 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Real Estate Market Analysis - Retail
- Supply And Demand
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents - 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Real Estate Market Analysis - Industrial
- Supply And Demand
- Rents And Yields
- Table: Historic Rents - 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
- Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
- Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Construction Industry Outlook
- Table: Germany Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Table: Germany Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
- Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Germany - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Business Environment
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Real Estate/Construction Environment Ratings
- Germany's Business Environment
- Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
- Institutions
- Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
- Infrastructure
- Table: Labour Force Quality
- Market Outlook
- Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
- Table: Top Exports
- Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
- Hochtief
- Multi Development Germany GmbH
- ORCO Property Group Germany
- Patrizia Immobilien AG
- TAG Immobilien AG
- Vivacon AG
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Bank Lending
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Sources

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