2012-09-02 16:48:36 - Fast Market Research recommends "Ghana Agribusiness Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Although we forecast cocoa production to be disappointing in 2011/12, cocoa will remain Ghana's most important agriculture sector over the coming years. With the Ghanaian government maintaining a fixed price for cocoa that is lower than the global price, Ghana-produced cocoa will continue to be smuggled into and sold in neighbouring countries where the price is higher. This is likely to prevent Ghana from achieving the goal of becoming the world's largest cocoa producer. For the livestock sector, we expect Ghana to maintain a production deficit, with the country remaining reliant on imports for its growing consumption of poultry. Corn production will decline in 2011/12, but rising demand for corn as food and as poultry feed will encourage
production in coming years.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451269_ghana_agribusiness_report_q4_2012.asp ..
* Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 47.0% to 77,300 tonnes. Production will be boosted by private investment as well as calls to 'buy Ghanaian'.
* Corn consumption growth to 2015/16: 18.3% to 1.95mn tonnes. An expanding population and forecast rapid economic growth will contribute to increased demand for grains as primary foodstuffs. However, we see the most significant increase in demand for corn as coming from the poultry sector in the form of animal feed.
* 2012 real GDP growth: 6.6% in 2012 (down from 14.3% in 2011; predicted to average 8.8% from now until 2016).
* 2012 central bank policy rate: 16.0% end-2012 (up from 12.5% in 2011).
* 2012 consumer price index (average): 9.5% (up from 8.7% in 2011)
This quarter, BMI has revised down its forecast for 2011/12 cocoa production in Ghana on the back of dry weather and falling prices at the start of the cocoa season, which prompted famers to reduce fertiliser use. The fall in output in Ghana is similar to trends across the rest of West Africa and has been a key contributor to the rise in cocoa prices in recent months. Out to 2015/16, we forecast production to improve by 9.7% to 1.1mn tonnes, as yield gains are likely to continue. Rising GDP is likely to provide cocoa farmers with easier access to credit, supporting production expansion. This growth, combined with the ageing stock in Cote d'Ivoire, has some optimistic observers predicting that Ghana could overtake Cote d'Ivoire as the world's largest cocoa producer and exporter within a few years.
In 2009/10, US Department of Agriculture figures show that for the first time, corn production surpassed consumption. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation. In 2011/12, we forecast corn output to fall slightly owing to poor weather and falling yields. Over the forecast period, we expect investment to encourage more modern, mechanised corn plantations, boosting yields. Rising demand for corn as food and as poultry feed will also encourage production.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Ghana Agriculture SWOT
- Ghana Business Environment SWOT
Supply Demand Analysis
- Ghana Livestock Outlook
- Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production, Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Ghana Grains Outlook
- Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Ghana Cocoa Outlook
- Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa: 2012 Outperformance To Continue
- Coffee: Next Support At USc130.0/lb
- Palm Oil: False Break?
- Sugar: More Fears Over Brazilian Crop
- Cotton: Technical Bounce Over?
- Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Monthly Grains Update
- Wheat - Deteriorating Supply Prospects
- Corn - Anticipating US Supply Downgrades
- Soybean - Range Trading Ahead
- Rice - Ample Supply To Keep Prices In Check
- Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Africa GM Seeds Outlook
- Select Countries - Global Rank By Corn Yields In 2011/12
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
- EMEA Machinery Outlook
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Fish
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Carbonated Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Bottled Water
- Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: MGR Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Country Snapshot: Ghana Demographic Data
- Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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