2013-02-22 13:52:41 - Fast Market Research recommends "Ghana Agribusiness Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Ghana's cocoa sector will remain a vital part of the country's agricultural industry in the coming years. Production declined significantly year-on-year in 2011/12, and we are forecasting a mild improvement in 2012/13 owing to better weather conditions. We see the country's overall food security remaining fairly stable; there was a significant moderation in prices towards the end of 2012 as new grain supply from the 2012/13 harvest came online. Over the long term, production could grow considerably should genetically modified seeds be adopted. This is now possible after changes to bio-safety laws in 2011. We believe that poultry production and consumption will see the most growth among the livestock complex owing to price competitiveness and local preferences.
* Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 15.1% to 990,000 tonnes. Yield gains are likely to continue. Rising GDP will allow easier credit access to cocoa farmers looking to expand production.
* Corn production growth to 2016/17: 40.0% to 2.24mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 9.2% (up from 7.6% in 2012; predicted to average 8.7% from 2012 to 2017).
* 2013 central bank policy rate: 15.5% end-2013 (up from 15% in 2012).
* 2013 consumer price index (average): 10.2% (up from 9.2% in 2012)
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536455_ghana_agribusiness_report_q2_2013.asp ..
The progress of Ghana's 2012/13 cocoa harvest continues to improve, and we continue to expect production this season to exceed last year's total, which contributes to our view for lower average cocoa prices in 2013. Cocoa had been one of the best performing agricultural commodities in H112 due to concerns that cocoa output from West Africa would follow the disappointing 2011/12 season with another mediocre year.
However, it now appears that production is on track to at least meet the 2011/12 total. The Harmattan winds that normally arrive in February are a downside production risk, albeit a minor one at this point.
We expect food security in Ghana to remain broadly stable over the coming months, as domestic corn prices have continued falling from recent highs, and the country's 2012/13 corn crop is expected to improve. The country's 2011/12 corn output total was one of the highest on record, but food prices still rose in the middle of 2012 in the context of rising global corn prices and a mild production decrease, creating food security concerns particularly in the north of the country. With the bulk of the 2012/13 crop already harvested, we believe the country will have relatively strong supplies over the coming months.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Agribusiness SWOT
- Business Environment SWOT
- Ghana Livestock Outlook
- Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Ghana Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Ghana Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Ghana Grains Outlook
- Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Ghana Cocoa Outlook
- Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Ghana Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Strategy
- Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Monthly Grains Strategy
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Performance & Forecasts
- Africa GM Outlook
- Africa Machinery Outlook
- Africa Fertiliser Outlook
- Industry Forecast - Food
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Industry Forecast - Drink
- Table: Beer Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Carbonated Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Industry Forecast - Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Ghana Demographic Data
- Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Ghana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Ghana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Ghana's Rural and Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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