2013-09-17 08:55:34 - Fast Market Research recommends "Ghana Business Forecast Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI Political Risk Ratings Ghana is one of the most peaceful and stable nations in Sub-Saharan Africa. It has a healthy democracy and a vibrant media. Presidential and parliamentary elections were held successfully in 2004, 2008 and 2012, and the transfer of power to a new administration led by the National Democratic Congress party in 2008 was smooth. However, social stability is a slight concern amid high unemployment and persistent inflation.
Report Table of Contents:
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risk To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
BMI Political Risk Ratings
On The Ground: Election Re-Run?
- Our analyst in Accra found the atmosphere to be calm ahead of the Supreme Court's verdict on whether Ghana's disputed December
2012 presidential elections should be re-run. Although the outcome of the case is difficult to predict, a repeat of the elections seems unlikely given considerations including the credibility of the Electoral Commission and the sheer cost of re-running the polls.
TABLE: GHANA POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Long-Term Oil To Prove A Critical Test For The Polity
- Ghana's political risk profile is relatively favourable, especially in the context of West Africa. However, oil revenues will require careful management, presenting a formidable test for the government over the coming decade.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Growth Downgraded, But Outlook Still Strong
- We have revised downward our forecasts for real GDP growth in Ghana owing to power shortages, lower commodity prices, slowing growth in China and a lacklustre outlook for cocoa production. Nevertheless, we expect Ghana to outperform on a regional and global level, posting economic growth of 7.4% in 2013 and 6.5% in 2014.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Outside Chance Of A Rate Hike
- There is an outside chance that the Bank of Ghana will hike interest rates over the coming months in response to the risk of elevated inflation and rapid currency depreciation. However, our core scenario is for inflation to moderate and the pace of FX losses to slow, giving the central bank room to keep rates on hold at 16.00%.
TABLE: CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION BASKET WEIGHTS, % OF TOTAL
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Balance Of Payments
Current Account Deficit To Narrow
- We forecast that Ghana's current account deficit will narrow to 8.6% of GDP in 2013 and remain at a similar level in 2014, following a much wider 12.8% of GDP in 2012. We expect the trade deficit and services deficit to improve thanks to an increase in oil production, but imports of capital and consumer goods will continue apace.
Regional Fiscal Policy
Budget Challenges Loom Large
- In the context of rising international debt yields and declining budget support from traditional benefactors in Europe, Sub-Saharan African governments will face challenges financing structural fiscal deficits in future unless concrete steps are made to negate the structural nature of these deficits.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Ghanaian Economy to 2022
- We are sanguine on Ghana's growth prospects for 2013-2022 and forecast annual real GDP growth averaging more than 6.0% over the coming 10 years. The ramping up of domestic oil production will provide significant impetus to the economy, allowing the mitigation of fiscal and current account drags.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Chapter 4: Business Environment
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
TABLE: AFRICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Risks Mounting For Emerging Markets
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673193_ghana_business_forecast_report_q4_201 ..
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