2014-02-19 09:45:01 - EpiCast Report: Meningococcal Disease - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
Incident cases in the global meningococcal disease reached 4,665 in 2012, and by 2022 epidemiologists estimate there will be 4,784 incident cases (Annual Growth Rate [AGR]: 0.26%). The US will have the highest AGR at 1.19%, and Germany will have the lowest at negative 0.39%. Although Spain will have a low AGR of 0.01%, by 2022 the market will have the second highest number of incident cases of meningococcal disease (968 incident cases) in the 8MM, following the UK (1,219 incident cases).
Meningococcal disease is caused by Neisseria meningitidis, which is an encapsulated, Gram-negative bacterium that has an incidence of one to three cases per 100,000 population worldwide (Giuliani et al., 2006). Strains of Neisseria meningitidis are classified based on the
chemical composition of unique polysaccharide capsules. Although there are 13 different serogroups, nearly all disease in humans is caused by strains representative of six serogroups: A, B, C, W-135, X and Y (CDC, 2012d; Halperin et al., 2012; Rosenstein et al., 2001).
Humans are the only natural reservoir of Neisseria meningitidis, and the bacterium causes three common clinical forms of meningococcal disease: meningitis, blood infection, and pneumonia (CDC, 2012d; Wilder-Smith and Memish, 2003). Up to 10% of adolescents and adults are asymptomatic, transient carriers of the bacterium, which can be transmitted via respiratory droplets or by direct contact (CDC, 2012d).
During the forecast period, the number of incident cases will remain relatively stable. An increase in international travel to regions of high incidence could cause some serogroups to appear in countries where they were not previously prevalent. In addition to vaccinating international travelers, the vaccination of household members of individuals traveling to high-risk regions would further prevent outbreaks due to strains that certain populations are not yet immune to.
Our epidemiologists obtained surveillance data for each market in this analysis, except for Spain and the UK. However, for these markets a peer-reviewed journal article was used that analyzed the surveillance data in these countries. The surveillance data used in this analysis are collected by country-specific, governmental organizations that routinely collect data on meningococcal disease cases. Use of surveillance data is optimal as it allows for a comprehensive picture of the epidemiology of the disease, including age and serogroup distribution. Although the overall incidence of meningococcal disease is relatively low, the age and serogroup segmentation of incident cases provided in this forecast shows the populations at highest risk for meningococcal disease in each market.
This report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends for meningococcal disease in eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Australia, and Brazil). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of incident cases of meningococcal disease segmented by age (