2013-01-15 13:30:16 - Greece Business Forecast Report Q1 2013 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

The Greek economy will linger on in 2013 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation take a damaging toll.

The prospect of further spending cuts and tax hikes will ensure that demonstrations and national strikes remain a key feature of the political landscape over the medium term.

The current account deficit has collapsed faster than we had expected, raising the prospect of a return to surplus over the medium term.

This is symbolic of Greece´s transition towards a more balanced and sustainable economic growth model.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our 2013 real GDP growth forecast to -4.1% from -2.7% previously.

We have revised our 2013 and 2014 current account forecasts to -1.6% and 0.0% respectively, from -8.5% and -7.3% previously, following signs that the

 

 

rebalancing process is accelerating rapidly.

Key Risks To Outlook

Upside Risks To Deficit Forecasts: The severity of the fiscal consolidation programme and the public backlash mean that the scope for slippage will remain pronounced.

Downside Risks To Economic Growth Forecasts: Should Greece decide to leave the eurozone, the recession would deepen in the short-to-medium term as the banking system would implode and the cost of energy and food imports would rocket.

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