2013-01-01 00:23:55 - Hong Kong Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
We have revised our 2012 growth forecast downwards and expect real GDP growth to slow from 5.0% to 2.2%, compared with our previous estimate of 3.0%. This falls between the government´s growth projection of 1-3% and against consensus expectations of 3.0%. Hong Kong´s property market is undergoing a necessary correction. The government is likely to ramp up the supply of land, while an expected economic downturn will impinge on demand.
We believe the effects of a corrective real estate market will duly place considerable stress on the economy, with private consumption likely to be the hardest hit. With money supply growth rolling over, loan growth expected to slow down markedly and economic growth prospects remaining downbeat, we expect the broader disinflation
trend to maintain course. We expect the service economy to witness a marked slowdown. Key merchanting and transportation services will be hurt by the slowdown in trade volumes while financial services exports will be adversely affected as the IPO market remains subdued.
Key Risks To Outlook
Downside Risk To 2012 Growth Forecast: Should the mainland economy experience a sharper-than-expected slowdown, or the sovereign crisis in Europe take a turn for the worse, the ripple effect on Hong Kong means the economy would be disproportionately affected.
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