2013-02-28 12:24:32 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI's Hungary petrochemicals report examines planned investment in the country's intermediate chemicals products, which will feed into the manufacturing chain that serves the automotives industry. However, we warn that there will be no spectacular recovery in the years ahead due to moribund growth in the domestic market and a slow recovery in exports.
Hungarian petrochemicals producer MOL reported a sharp drop in petrochemicals output through the first three quarters of 2012, indicating that it has been badly hit by the downturn in EU demand, particularly at its domestic operations. In the olefins segment, ethylene output slumped 27% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 447,000 tonnes and propylene output also fell 27% to 229,000 tonnes. The reductions were largely in response to a 26% fall
in polymer sales - with low density polyethylene (LDPE) output down 35% y-o-y to 121,000 tonnes, high density polyethylene (HDPE) down 29% to 223,000 tonnes and polypropylene (PP) down 21% to 322,000 tonnes. The broad-based decline followed the trend reported in H211. The situation in Q312 picked up slightly following a dismal Q212, but was still poor by historical standards.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541209_hungary_petrochemicals_report_q2_2013 ..
In the medium-term, investment is targeted at two key raw materials that feed into the manufacturing of car parts, namely isocyanates (used in automotive seating and other applications) and butadiene (which forms the basis for tyre production). BorsodChem opened a new 160,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) toluene diisocyanate (TDI) plant in October 2011 and in mid-2011 commenced the expansion of its methylene diphenyl isocyanate (MDI) plant from 90,000tpa to 240,000tpa. MOL is also investing HUF30bn (US $137mn) in a new butadiene plant which will help secure feedstock supplies for synthetic rubber production.
BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* BMI estimates that overall petrochemicals output declined by around 25% in 2012, an upward revision to the 29% decline forecast in our Q1 2013 Hungary report.
* From a low base, the industry is still expected to post growth in 2013, although confidence in a recovery is low. In terms of demand, the construction sector will remain in the doldrums and the automotive industry is likely to feel the effects of declines in both external and domestic demand.
* In BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Hungary scores 58.4 points out of 100, up 0.6 points since the previous quarter due to an improvement in market. However, it remains in fourth place in the regional ratings table, 0.4 points behind Czech Republic. Market risk has improved as a result of Hungary's increasing specialisation in isocynates for use in polyurethane production, making it a regional leader in a value chain that should enable it to leverage growth with the recovery of the automotive industry, a major consumer of polyurethane.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Table: Hungary's Petrochemical Industry, 2010-2017 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
- Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central and Eastern European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Trouble In The South East
- Hungary Leads EU Petrochemicals Recovery
- High Risks, But High Rewards In Russia, Azerbaijan
- Table: Central and Eastern European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Industry Trends And Developments
- MOL's Strategy
- Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari (MOL)
- Europe Overview
- Short-term Outlook: Competitiveness And Pricing
- Looking Beyond Europe
- Shale Gas Boom To Change European Petrochemicals Outlook?
- Commonwealth Of Independent States' Capacity Growth
Global Industry Overview
- Global Petrochemicals Overview
- Change In Feedstock, But Not In Market Cycle
- Polymers Heading On Different Trajectories
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
- Refiners: Is The Party Over?
- Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
- Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
- Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
- Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
- Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
- Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Hungary's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Hungary's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Hungary's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Table: Glossary of Petrochemicals Terms
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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