2012-06-29 23:45:46 - Hungary Tourism Report Q3 2012 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com

The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.Although growth slowed markedly at the end of the year, 2011 was favourable for foreign tourism in Hungary – indeed growth in arrivals was the strongest for many years – but domestic tourism demand was weak. Based on official data, growth in foreign tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night) was just under 8% year-on-year (y-o-y). The number of same-day visitors, meanwhile, was up a much weaker 2.2% y-o-y. In Q411, growth in foreign tourist arrivals slowed to 5.4% y-o-y, after a solid performance

 

 

in Q311, when there was a 9.6% increase in arrivals compared with Q310. In Q111 and Q211, growth stood at 7.3% and 7.7% y-o-y respectively. Overnight visitors have increased each year since 2008.

Hospitality

After good data in January 2012, figures for the first two months of the year show that the total number of nights by foreign and domestic tourists spent in all accommodation establishments rose a sound 7.8% y-oy.

The difference in growth rates between international and domestic visitor nights though was considerable, at 15% and 0.8% y-o-y respectively. It is assumed that, in case of five-star hotels, a noticeable fall in the number of foreign guests and tourism nights of about 9% and 4% y-o-y respectively in February was partly due to the bankruptcy of Malév Hungarian Airlines, which occurred on February 3 2012.

The hospitality sector recorded modest growth in foreign tourism in 2011 but there was a downturn in domestic tourism. The total number of nights by foreign and domestic tourists spent in all accommodation establishments declined marginally, by 0.6%, compared with 2010. While international visitor nights rose by 3.2% y-o-y, to some 9.9mn (51% of the total), nights spent by domestic tourists declined by over 4% y-o-y, reflecting the weak Hungarian economy. The number of overnight stays by German tourists – by far the key source market in the accommodation sector – continued the downward trend of recent years, falling by an annual 6.6%. Four other major source markets, Austria, the UK, the Czech Republic and Italy – in order of importance – recorded a mixed performance, with growth of 1.2%, 1.3%, 13.5% and - 1.0% y-o-y respectively. Outside the EU, growth in overnight stays was favourable from the US (+6%) and Russia (+20%).

Forecast Scenario

This quarter, BMI has edged down its growth forecasts for foreign tourism over the short term, largely due to slightly weaker growth in arrivals than we had anticipated in 2011. We also acknowledge some marginal reduction in foreign visitors due to the closure of Malév in February. The key driver for the expected downturn in tourism is recession in the eurozone – the major source region – over the next year, with growth in the coming years likely to be very weak. Our revised economic growth forecasts for the region are 1.6% for 2011; -0.5% in 2012; and 1.2% in 2013. In Austria – the key eurozone source market for arrivals – growth is expected to slow sharply to 0.5% in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011, edging up to 1.6% in 2013. A sharp slowdown in growth is also forecast in Germany, from 3% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2012, picking up to 2.0% in 2013. Weaker economic growth in both Romania and Slovakia in 2012 will also hit Hungarian tourism. The Hungarian forint fell sharply against the euro in the latter half of 2011, which helped improve the competitivesness of the tourism industry. We now hold a cautiously optimistic view on the forint however.

Record Year For Budapest Airport But …

Budapest Airport had a very successful year in 2011, with passenger traffic up by just under 9% y-o-y to over 8.9mn customers (after about 1% growth in 2010). Following the grounding of Malév (the major player in the domestic market), the airport sub-sector is likely to see negative growth and there will also be ramifications for long-term investor confidence in Hungary (especially for infrastructure concessions).

Wizz Air Has Largest Budapest-Based Fleet In Hungary

In April 2012, low-cost airline Wizz Air welcomed a sixth Airbus A320 to its fleet in Budapest – the largest Budapest-based fleet of any carrier in Hungary.

Last Quarter Results Give Boost to Danubius Hotels Group

In preliminary results for 2011, Hungary´s Danubius Hotels Group reported that consolidated group revenue was up slightly by 2% y-o-y in local currency terms to almost HUF44bn (US$232mn), while operating profit rose sharply to HUF489mn (US$2.6mn), an annual increase of 37%. Sales revenue in Q411 also improved a relatively strong 11% y-o-y. In Hungarian operations, revenue was up just 1% y-oy in 2011, with an operating loss of HUF528mn (US$2.8mn), a slight improvement on 2010.

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