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Iceland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012

Iceland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - new country guide report published

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2013-01-01 00:27:54 - Iceland Business Forecast Report Q4 2012 - a new country guide report on

We remain generally optimistic that Iceland can pull itself out of its present malaise, however there will be no return to the fast growth seen during the pre-crisis period. While the government remains committed to EU membership talks we fear that it is increasingly running out of time ahead of parliamentary elections in 2013 which will likely return an EU-sceptic government to power. Over our 10-year forecast period, we see Iceland enjoying a high degree of political stability, given a very solid security environment, few societal dividing lines and a high standard of living.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised up our 2012 real GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 2.4% following the publication of H112 GDP figures. However, we remain



below the consensus growth figure, and expect other institutions to revise down their forecasts over H212.

Key Risks To Outlook

Global economic conditions could deteriorate markedly, stifling Iceland´s export-driven recovery. Failure to find agreeable terms on fishing and whaling policy with the EU could derail Iceland´s EU convergence process and undermine its investment outlook.

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Mike King
Phone: London: +44 (0) 203 086 8600

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