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"India Autos Report Q3 2013" is now available at Fast Market Research

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2013-06-13 10:56:21 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "India Autos Report Q3 2013"

Despite the current gloom, we remain bullish on Indian auto sales going into FY2013/14. With Indian companies having run down their inventory in the past few months, there has already been an uptick in investment spending recently as inventories are rebuilt. Even though we do not expect further monetary easing measures from the central bank for the rest of the year, the recent rate cuts since the beginning of 2013, will provide a nice tailwind for passenger car sales in the coming months with consumer loan credit becoming more readily available. Also, if inflation falls further, consumer sentiment will improve as well.

With a slightly better than expected performance in March 2013, we are downgrading our FY2013/14 auto sales forecast slightly,

due to base effects. We now forecast passenger vehicle sales to grow 4.0%, from 4.9% previously, to hit 2.8mn units and CV sales to grow 7.0%, from 8.0% previously, to hit 850,000 units. This will then bring our full FY2013/14 auto sales forecast to 3.65mn units, up 4.7% y-o-y.

Full Report Details at

While SUV sales growth will slow down due to higher taxes in the latest budget, as well as moderation from previously phenomenal growth rates, we still expect the segment to be an outperformer.

Although the passenger car market contracted for the first time in a decade, with the exception of BMW, most luxury automakers are enjoying good Q1 growth, defying the broader slowdown in the car market. We expect motorbike sales growth to pick up in FY2013/14 and forecast sales to grow 8.3%, to 15mn units. The recent rate cut on May 3 is likely to ease consumer credit, which will see motorbike sales benefitting from cheaper loan availability.

Risk To Bullish Outlook

As with most things in India, much of our concern lies with policymaking. High fiscal spending has, in recent years, crowded out private sector investment by keeping inflation and interest rates high. With general elections due in 2014, it is difficult to see a substantial improvement in the health of public balance sheets. Moreover, there is an added element of uncertainty as to the make-up of the next government. Both these trends could dissuade some infrastructure investment from taking place in the near term.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
- Political
- Economic
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Production And Sales
- Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production, 2011-2018
- Trade
- Table: India Autos - Trade, 2011-2018
- Industry News
- Passenger Vehicles
- Forecast
- Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Vehicles, 2010-2017
- Company Developments
- Commercial Vehicles
- Forecast
- Table: India Autos Sector - Commercial Vehicles, 2009-2017
- Company Developments
- Motorcycles
- Forecast
- Table: India Autos Sector - Motorcycles, 2011-2018
- Company Developments
- Suppliers
- Company Developments
Macroeconomic Forecast
- Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific
Company Profile
- Company Monitor
- Hyundai Motor India
- Maruti Suzuki
- Tata Motors
- Mahindra & Mahindra
- Bajaj Auto
Regional Overview
- Asia Overview
- Table: Vehicle Sales, March 2013 (CBUS)
- Asian EV Landscape
Global Industry Overview
- Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2013 (CBUs)
- Japan Moderates As Consumer Carries US
- Revisions Required As Germany Stumbles
- China Comeback Shines
Demographic Forecast
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Automobile Industry
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

About Fast Market Research

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