2013-02-01 18:11:26 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "India Food & Drink Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

In September 2012, in what might be in time remembered as the most significant global retail event of 2012, India finally opened up its retail industry to foreign investors, potentially paving the way for the likes of Carrefour, Tesco and Walmart to enter what is potentially an outstanding retail opportunity. The new legislation has been met very favourably by the pro-business lobby, which has largely grown frustrated at how long it has taken India to pass this legislation, especially after some false hopes, including most recently in late 2011 when the government reversed its decision to allow foreign retailers to invest in controlling stakes. We believe Walmart to be the strong favourite to lead investment in India over the next

few years, ahead of Carrefour and Tesco who, as we have argued previously, are preoccupied with sorting out their domestic businesses.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529376_india_food_drink_report_q1_2013.aspx


Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency, INR)

* 2013 food consumption growth = +7.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2012-2017 = +7.2%
* 2013 alcoholic drink value sales growth = +13.2%; CAGR to 2017 = +13.0%
* 2013 soft drink value sales growth = +19.0%; CAGR to 2017 = +16.9%
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +18.5%; CAGR to 2017 = +15.1%

Key Company Trends

Diageo Continues India Push With United Spirits Stake: In November 2012, UK-based multinational drinks firm Diageo agreed to purchase a majority stake in United Spirits, India's largest spirits producer. Diageo will pay INR11.7bn (US$2bnn) for a 53.4% stake in the business, which in our view will put the firm in a strong position to drive growth within the Indian spirits sector. Previous discussions between the two firms broke down in 2009. However, with United Breweries Group currently under pressure owing to the struggles of the group's airline business, Kingfisher, a deal has now been successfully brokered.

General Mills Eyes India: In September 2012, US food giant General Mills said that it is looking for acquisitions in India to cement its exposure to the world's most attractive emerging markets. In an interview with the Financial Times, the firm's CFO suggested that exposure to the Indian market would complement its strong growth in China and improved position in Brazil following the acquisition of Yoki.

Risks To Outlook

Regional policy is currently just as important as that on a national level at determining India's investment appeal. This means that regional politics and the unpredictability of local level policies could be a major risk to investment. Taking the multi-brand retail bill, for example, the lack of consensus on the issue means that foreign players' involvement in the sector is not enshrined by national law. Even if a state were to vote for liberalisation today, there would be no guarantee that the next regime would honour such agreements. There are 16 elections in India's states and union territories to be held by 2014, not to mention general elections in that year, meaning that companies looking to invest in the sector may have to consider separate alliances or partnerships with state parties (both ruling and opposition) in order to safeguard their long-term business strategies. Such dialogue will be sluggish at best, suggesting to us that investment in the multi-brand retail will flow at a gradual pace.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- India Food Industry SWOT
- India Drink Industry SWOT
- India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
- BMI's Core Global Industry Views
- Table: Core Views
- Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q113 (score out of 10)
- Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
- India's Food And Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: GDP By Expenditure
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Trade
- Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Drink
- Hot Drinks
- Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Alcoholic Drinks
- Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Soft Drinks
- Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: MGR Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format - 2011
Food
- Key Industry Trends And Developments
- General Mills Eyes India
- Hershey Takes Control Of Indian JV
- McDonald's To Go Meat-Free
- PepsiCo Expanding In Indian Food
- Britannia Industries Posts Sales Growth
- Toblerone Launch Follows Record Results
- Hershey's Split From Godrej Is A Positive Move
- Yum Seeks To Replicate Chinese Success In India
- Sweet Prospects For Krispy Kreme
- Increase In Rice Supplies And Fish Import Demand
- Market Overview
- Food Processing
- Food Consumption
- Confectionery
- Canned Food
- Trade
- Agriculture
- Rice
- Dairy
Drink
- Key Industry Trends And Developments
- Varun Beverages Eyes Indian Growth
- Diageo Continues India Push With United Spirits Stake
- Coca-Cola Focused On Indian Energy Drinks
- Is Franchising Key For Lavazza's Indian Cafe Business?
- India, An Exciting Growth Story For Coca-Cola
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=529376&dt=t

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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