2012-11-18 04:26:08 - Fast Market Research recommends "Indonesia Power Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
A bleaker outlook for the Indonesian economy has led us to revise down our power forecast for the country. However, we note that Indonesia's power sector is still very attractive especially over the long term, owing to its economic fundamentals and increasing electrification rates. We expect growth to come mainly from the coal and geothermal power sectors as the country has significant reserves, and exploitation will be economical relative to other sources of generation. The country will also have to increase the share of coal produced for local uses in order to meet its coal-fired generation needs.
We forecast power generation in Indonesia to grow by 7.9% over 2012, down from our previous forecast of 8.0%. This slight revision down is
attributable to our bleaker economic outlook for the near term. We expect thermal generation to grow by 8.1% from 2011, comprising mainly of 9.8% growth in coal generation. Non-hydropower generation is set to grow by 10.8% in 2012, as a number of geothermal and wind projects come online.
Full Report Details at
Over the period 2012-2021, we forecast power generation in Indonesia to grow an average of 7.4% per annum. This modest figure reflects our positive outlook for the country's power sector, which we base on the Indonesia's solid economic fundamentals and improving electrification rates. We believe that growth will be propelled primarily by coal-fired generation and non-hydropower generation, as the government seeks to reduce the country's reliance on oil-based generation.
Key trends and developments in the Indonesian electricity market:
* The government held off increasing electricity prices for consumers in April 2012, due to strong public opposition. This means that the country will have to continue subsidising electricity for the near future, as the average cost of generation still exceeds the electricity price.
* State utility PLN has announced its intention to acquire coal mines, due to the strong historical and forecasted growth in coal consumption. Its subsidiary, PLN Batubara, will perform acquisitions with an expected budget of INR10trn (US$1.05bn) to finance acquisitions of entire mines or strategic stakes.
* The feed-in tariff for geothermal energy was raised in July 2012. As a result, we believe that private producers will be more interested in the sector, but that there is still room for further tariff increases.
* Industry reports suggest that Indonesia holds up to 76 gigawatts of hydropower potential, but the country has yet to embark on the large hydroelectric programmes seen elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region. The capital costs involved have most likely deterred investors who prefer to stick with conventional thermal schemes or embrace geothermal supply.
Report Table of Contents:
- Indonesia Power SWOT
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Indonesia Snapshot (Macro)
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Indonesia Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Indonesia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2015-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)
Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generation Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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