2012-10-27 18:22:08 - New Fixed Networks market report from Business Monitor International: "Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q4 2012"

BMI View: Indonesia's telecoms market presents good growth opportunities due to its large and youthful population and extremely low broadband penetration rate. Although incumbent operator PT Telkom dominates the fixed-line market and has a strong presence in the mobile sector, fixed-wireless services are becoming more prevalent as operators roll out services to metropolitan and underserved areas. The healthy competition in the mobile/fixed-wireless market brings cheap services to consumers, but declining ARPU and usage levels for operators.

Key Data

* The mobile market slowed in Q112 as operators trimmed inactive subscribers from their books.
* With only one quarter of data available in a traditionally slow quarter for Indonesia, we have not made any changes to mobile forecasts in this report.
*

ARPU and MOU levels remain on a downward trajectory with an extremely high proportion of prepaid customers unlikely to change any time soon.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/464497_indonesia_telecommunications_report_q ..


Key Trends And Developments

Mobile operator Bakrie Telecom discounted more than 3mn subscribers from its customer base in Q112, including inactive customers as well as those generating IDR2,000 or less in monthly ARPU. The once fourth-ranked operator is now seventh in the market and with an unclear future in light of shareholders wanting to withdraw. Now that an alliance with incumbent operator Telkom has been ruled out, we believe further consolidation in the fragmented market is likely.

Even though mobile operator Indosat has demonstrated 4G LTE technology, in July, Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Informatics (MoCI) said it did not expect 4G services to be available in the country until at least 2014. The regulator said it was studying the possibility of distributing spectrum for the deployment of the service in other countries, so that Indonesia would be able to choose the most efficient way in which to deploy the technology.

While there were again no changes to any of Indonesia's scores in this quarter's update to BMI's Asia's Risk/Reward Ratings analysis for the telecoms sector, Indonesia relinquished its eighth position to China. We continue to believe that Indonesia scores relatively well due to above average performances within the wider telecoms industry and also in the macroeconomic arena, but that it is held back only by a disappointing Country Rewards score. Economic growth slowed in Q112 and we have downgraded our 2012 expectations to a still healthy 5.4% y-o-y growth. We expect the investment climate to deteriorate over the coming quarters and, with high foreign ownership levels, Indonesia remains at risk for further (and potentially acute) capital outflows in the event of a prolonged or severe global financial downturn.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
- Indonesia Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Business Environment SWOT
- Indonesia Mobile Business Environment SWOT
- Indonesia Political SWOT
- Indonesia Economic SWOT
- Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
- Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412
- Indonesia
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts
- ARPU
- Table: ARPU Historical Data And Forecasts (IDR)
- Fixed Line
- Table: Fixed-Line Historical Data And Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts
Market Overview
- Mobile
- Regional Perspective
- Indonesia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
- Key Developments
- Mobile Growth
- Market Shares
- Table: Number Of Mobile Subscribers (Q112)
- Usage
- Networks
- Mobile Content
- Table: Telkomsel SMS Messages Sent (bn) Vs Revenue Per SMS (IDR)
- Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2011
- Mobile Operator Data
- Table: Indonesia Mobile Market Overview
- Table: Telkomsel
- Table: Indosat
- Table: XL Axiata
- Table: Bakrie Telecom
- Regional Mobile Content Outlook
- Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011
- Fixed Line
- Table: Fixed Network Connections, 2008-2010 ('000)
- Telkom: Key Fixed-Line Network Developments, 2009-2011
- Fixed Wireless
- Table: Major Fixed Wireless Operators - Number Of Subscribers (mn)
- Broadband
- IPTV
- Submarine Cable Deployments
- Table: Telkom - Key Submarine Cable Developments, 2009-2011
- WiMAX
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Market Development, 2009 -2011
Regulatory Environment
- Indonesia: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Telecommunications Law
- Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
- Key Players
- Table: Indonesia Telecoms Sector Key Players
- Table: Key Operators Financial Indicators, 2004-2010
Operator Profiles
- Telkom
- Telkomsel
- Indosat
- XL Axiata (Formerly Excelcomindo Axiata)
Company Monitor
- Samsung Electronics
- Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn)
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
- Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
- Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Ratings System
- Indicators
- Table: Ratings Indicators
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Sources

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