2012-09-05 09:43:10 - Iran Business Forecast Report Q2 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com
Despite heightened rhetoric, we do not believe Irans threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are credible. Any cut-off in oil export receipts would hit the economy hard, mitigating the governments willingness to carry through with its threats.
The economy will remain a regional laggard as investment activity stalls following the imposition of a more stringent set of international sanctions on the regime in late 2011.
The Iranian rial is likely to remain under fundamental downside pressure as households continue to shift their savings into dollars. The subsidy reform programme is likely to have mixed results over the long term. Although it has helped reduce instances of absolute poverty throughout the country, it has also undermined private consumption among higher income earners.
We have revised down our real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and are projecting the economy to expand by 2.1% and 2.5% in FY2012/13 and FY2013/14 respectively.
Key Risks To Outlook
Parliamentary elections in March are likely to act as a flashpoint of instability.
Political unrest in large oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia could cause a more pronounced spike in global energy prices, leading to upside risk to our growth forecasts and downside risk to our fiscal deficit forecasts.The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
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