2014-03-13 14:41:02 - The Pharmaceutical Market: Iran - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
We caution that our forecasts for the Iranian pharmaceutical market are at considerable risk due to runaway inflation and political risks. We also point out that the official exchange rate does not follow the trends in the black market, which further distorts market valuations. While our local currency forecast for the market´s development is broadly in line with the previous quarter´s figure, the value in US dollar terms will be considerably impacted by rising inflation, caused by the sanction induced currency crisis.
At the same time, we expect that the volume of pharmaceutical sales in the country will continue to be negatively impacted by the prevailing economic and political conditions. These have already resulted in shortages of certain medicines, on account
of the inability of local stakeholders to actually pay for them, given that Iranian banks have been blacklisted. Therefore, despite the country´s demography-based long-term potential as a pharmaceutical market, its development clearly remains uncertain for the time being, and dependent on the eventual resolution of the crisis.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IRR52,127bn (US$1.04bn) in 2012 to IRR55,606bn (US$0.79bn) in 2013; +6.7% in local currency terms and -23.8% in US dollar terms. US dollar f orecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due to r ampant inflation in Iran.
Healthcare: IRR298,573 (US$28.04bn) in 2012 to IRR387,824 (US$29.61bn) in 2013; -10.4% in local currency terms and +5.1% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due changes in macroeconomic conditions.
Medical devices: IRR14,296bn (US$1.09bn) in 2012 to IRR11,862 (US$0.71); -17.0%% in local currency terms and -35.2% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due to rampant inflation in Iran.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
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