2013-12-30 04:43:18 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Iran Shipping Report Q1 2014"
We forecast that Iran will return to economic growth in 2014, with real GDP set to expand by 2.4% following our 2013 estimate of a 1.6% contraction. Container shipping also is set to take tentative steps to recovery. Risks to the upside to both of these forecasts are presented by the growing rapprochement between Iran and the international community. However, the country's shipping sector has been impacted severely by sanctions in recent years - another hit came in 2013 as since the introduction of strengthened US sanctions on July 1, all major shipping lines ceased calling at Iranian ports.
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to grow by 3.1%, and average growth of 6.0% to 2018.
* 2018 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 1.992mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - not enough to match 2011 volumes.
* 2014 total real trade is forecast to return to growth at 5.5%, and average 4.7% to 2018.
Full Report Details at
Key Industry Trends
IRISL Scores A Hollow Victory: BMI notes with interest that Iranian shipping company IRISL, formerly Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, may have the European Union (EU) sanctions against it lifted before the close of 2013, following a September decision by the body's courts that they are based on insufficient evidence. We caution, however, that even if the EU sanctions are lifted little will have in reality changed for the beleaguered shipping line, with US sanctions still firmly in place, along with the more general limitations on interaction with the Iranian state.
Kish, Loallem To Continue To Underwrite India-Iran Crude Oil: The Indian authorities in October ruled that insurance covering ships from Iran carrying crude oil to India can continue. The ruling allows crude cargoes to continue to be underwritten by Iranian insurance firm Kish P&I and India's Loallem Insurance. In the 2012/13 financial year India imported approximately 13.1mn metric tonnes of crude from Iran, down from 18.1mn metric tonnes in the 2011/12 financial year.
Key Risks To Outlook
The sanctions imposed on Iran provide considerable risk to our forecasts. With the nuclear energy development programme - which the Iranians insist is not related to the development of weapons - elevated to the status of a national cause, it seems unlikely that it will be dropped anytime soon. However, it is uncertain how much longer Iran can continue in the current manner given its dire economic outlook and were a reversal to be made - and sanctions lifted - this could create risk to our economic and port throughput forecasts. The election of a new, more liberal, government in June 2013 could mean a return to the negotiating tables sooner rather than later. There have already been signs of a growing rapprochement between Iran and the US, with the first dialogue between leaders since the revolution taking place following President Rouhani's election.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Port Of Bandar Abbas Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data, 2011-2018
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2011
- Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2011
- Iran Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
Shipping - Global Industry View
- Box Demand: Container Outlook Strengthening In 2014
- Box Supply: Slowing New Vessel Deliveries To Decrease Overcapacity Pressure
- Table: Q313 Container Vessel Deliveries
- Table: 2013 Mega Vessel Orders
- Box Rates: Rate Push In Preparation For 2014
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Economic Analysis
- Table: IRAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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