2012-09-06 07:45:11 - Israel Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
BMI View: Over the next decade, Israel is set to benefit from one of the Middle Eas4 s most exciting hydrocarbon growth stories. While gas production is set to rocket, strong potential also exists for oilâ both in the form of deep offshore reservoirs and a pilot scheme for oil shale, which could potentially unlock several billion barrels of reserves.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Israels oil and gas sector:
- BMI believes Israeli gas consumption declined slightly in 2011 owing to attacks on the gas import pipeline from Egypt. However, the start-up of production at offshore fields will significantly boost consumption, as Israeli energy demand becomes more reliant on gas. Consumption will rise from a
little over 3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to over 20bcm by 2018.
- We forecast production to reach just under 30bcm by 2021, assuming the Leviathan field comes onstream by 2017.
- Israel will import small quantities of LNG in 2012 and 2013 to compensate for the decline in output from Mari-B and gas volumes from Noa. However, we see Israeli emerging as an liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter by 2017.
- Israeli oil consumption is set to decline substantially from a high of around 244,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to under 210,000b/d by 2021. We do not expect a rise in Israels 220,000b/d refining capacity over the forecast period.
- Oil production is negligible, but the successful commercialisation of Leviathans oil or the pilot onshore shale oil project present long-term upside risks.
Israels dependence on imports of crude oil and refined products leads to high volatility in the countrys import costs. Our assumptions of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. We assume OPEC basket oil prices to fall from US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$99.38/bbl in 2012, thus creating upside risk to the Israeli macroeconomic outlook. The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.
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