2013-12-25 21:31:09 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Italy Autos Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
We forecast vehicle sales in Italy to decline by 8.5% in 2014, to some 1.4mn units, on the back of a weak macro environment and in line with our forecast for an 8.0% drop in passenger car sales and 14.4% fall in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. In 2014, we expect these dynamics to continue to impact the autos sector, and accordingly forecast a 5.6% drop in vehicle sales over the year.
BMI believes that private consumption in Italy will continue to contract in 2013, although at a slower pace than the sharp decline witnessed in 2012. We maintain a bearish view on the country's private consumption story: Economic indicators suggest that consumer sentiment is beginning to turn a corner, in
line with the moderation in declining autos sales, but we caution that the recovery will be slow, and private consumption is likely to remain weak over the short term. Indeed, Italian households have been hit by ongoing austerity measures, including higher taxes and cuts in social spending, while unemployment remains elevated, and real wage growth is fairly tepid. This outlook has partly informed our 2013 passenger car forecast.
Full Report Details at
We expect business and manufacturing activity in the country, key drivers of growth in the CV segment, to remain relatively subdued over the year. Furthermore, we believe that many businesses are delaying their purchasing decisions in the face of this economic decline. This outlook has partly informed our bearish sales forecasts for the year. In 2013, we expect LCV sales in Italy to decline 14.5%, and heavy truck sales to decrease 16.0%.
BMI believes that Italy's labour market still remains relatively uncompetitive and rigid, and production will continue to be uncompetitive. Indeed, vehicle production in Italy declined 15.0% in 2012. Output from Fiat makes up most of this figure. The company's decision to consolidate manufacturing in Italy, despite the poor operating environment, has caused us to revise our longer-term production forecasts for the country. In 2013, we expect to see a 5.7% increase in vehicle production volumes on the back of low base effects and Fiat's restructuring strategy.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Sales, Production And Trade
- Table: Italy Auto Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Italy Auto Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Italy Auto Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Passenger Vehicles
- Table: Italy Passenger Car Segment - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Italy - Passenger Car Sales By Brand
- Average Age Of Cars On The Road
- Table: Average Age Of Cars On The Road
- Table: Passenger Car Production By Brand
- Table: Passenger Car Exports By Brand
- Industry News
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Italy Commercial Vehicle Segment - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Industry News
- Table: Italy Motorcycle Segment - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Company Monitor
- Table: Opel's Production Sites
- Western Europe Overview
Global Industry Overview
- Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Italy's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
- Industry Forecasts
- Sector-Specific Methodology
- Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
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