2013-12-24 21:44:50 - Fast Market Research recommends "Italy Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
The sharp drop in SSN pharmaceutical expenditure in 6M13 cautions that spending on medicines will continue to fall over the rest of the year. This will have an impact on drug companies, pharmacies and patients. Our bearish outlook takes into account the government's aim to slash public healthcare costs. This involved reducing public healthcare costs by EUR900mn (US$1.2bn) in 2012, EUR1.8bn (US$2.4bn) in 2013, EUR2bn (US$2.7bn) in 2014 and EUR2.1bn (US$2.8bn) in 2015.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: EUR21.99bn (US$27.93bn) in 2012 to EUR20.91bn (US$27.81bn) in 2013; -4.9% in local currency terms and -0.4% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: EUR152.02bn (US$193.07bn) in 2012 to EUR154.05bn (US$204.89bn) in 2013; +1.3% growth in local currency terms and +6.1% in US dollar terms.
Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754562_italy_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_repo ..
Risk/Reward Rating: In our Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Italy is 12th out of the 14 markets surveyed in Western Europe. Despite being a large market, Italy is characterised by low levels of annual growth, largely due to of widespread price cuts. Additionally, the Italian economy is one of the most vulnerable economies in an already shaky eurozone. High levels of public debt, poor infrastructure and a lack of competitiveness indicate that the country will remain one of the region's laggards over the forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments
* In September 2013, Strides Arcolab received US FDA approval for its subsidiary Beltapharm's facility in Milan, Italy. The plant, which has also received approval from the EU and Australia's TGA, manufactures liquids, semi-solids, ointments and creams. Strides commented that it is expecting its first approval in the US of a niche semi-solid product by Q114. Strides is currently developing a portfolio of liquids and semi-solid products for the US and EU markets and has over 12 products at various stages of development or approval. Strides already markets semi-solid products in the UK market. Strides' subsidiary, Beltapharm, was acquired by the firm in 2006.
* In September 2013, Menarini acquired Bologna-based Silicon Biosystems, a provider of specialised molecular and cellular biology technologies capable of recovering and analysing tumour cells from blood samples. The acquisition presents Silicon Biosystems with the opportunity to capitalise on Menarini's infrastructure and business synergies and obtain the support and resources needed to continue developing the technologies and expand their use to clinical markets. While the acquisition complements other Menarini ventures, including its existing diagnostics businesses and its pharmaceutical and biotechnology research programmes, Silicon Biosystems is expected to operate as a stand-alone entity. Financial terms of the acquisition were not disclosed.
BMI Economic View: Although the recession in Italy shows clear signs of having bottomed out, the recovery remains fragile and at risk from a renewed bout of political instability. We forecast real GDP to contract by 1.5% in 2013, before returning to positive growth of just 0.3% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
BMI Political View: The medium-term outlook for meaningful structural and fiscal reform will continue to be impeded by the divergent objectives of major political parties, an evenly divided electorate, and an electoral system that contributes to Italy's endemic political instability.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Italy Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Italy Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Italy Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Italy Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Italy Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Italy Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Italy Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Trade
- Table: Italy Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
- Table: Italy Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (EURmn)
- Other Healthcare Data
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Italy Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
- Healthcare Sector
- Clinical Trials
- Intellectual Property Developments
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
- Retail Pharmacy Sector
- Merck & Co
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Italy's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
- Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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