2014-04-02 12:31:02 - Japan Freight Transport Report Q1 2014 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
Growth Still Expected To Slow In 2014 Despite some positive signs, analysts remain rather downbeat about Japan´s economic prospects. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe´s three policy ´arrows´ raised expectations in 2013, but we do not think the initial impetus created is sustainable into 2014. The first two arrows - aggressive monetary and fiscal stimuli - played their part, but the third, a combination of industrial reform and revitalisation, appears still to be tied up in legislative negotiation. Despite strong encouragement from the government, a recent Yomiuri survey found that only one third of companies were considering boosting wages, and those that were, were boosting one-off bonuses rather than base pay.
After strong quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 3.7% in Q213, there was a
sharp slowdown to 1.9% in Q313. We have raised our estimate for GDP growth in 2013 to 2.4%, reflecting the slower-than-expected winding down from the initial boost from ´Abenomics´. But given our expectation of slower private consumption growth, private sector investment caution and sluggish net exports, all against a background of continuing fiscal and debt pressures, we are continuing to predict GDP expansion at a modest 1.3% in 2014.
The fact that Tokyo has been selected for the 2020 summer Olympics provides some medium-term upside, but even here we are cautious about the ability of capital spending on the games to lift Japanese growth above trend.
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