2012-02-13 17:07:38 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Japan Metals Report Q1 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research

The earthquake in Japan in March 2011 will have a significant bearing on the country's metals industry for years to come. In the short term, the disruption halted production at several copper and aluminium refineries. It is also set to hurt demand as the economy has now slipped back into recession. However, we expect demand and supply of metals to pick up as reconstruction efforts begin. Steel and aluminium are the two sectors most likely to benefit as much of Japan's infrastructure around the epicentre of the earthquake has been damaged. Over the long term, we expect production and consumption trends to fall back to low single figures, in line with growth forecasts for the Japanese economy as a whole.

Japan remains one of the largest producers and consumers of these metals, but faces a declining share of world output and demand as China and, to a lesser extent, India, rapidly increase production and consumption in most metals.


Full Report Details at
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We expect steel production to rebound on the back of increased demand as construction efforts get underway. However, producer margins are likely to remain tight as iron ore and coal prices continue to rise, only some of which can be passed onto the consumer. We expect a continuation of the long-term decline in primary aluminium production, with output falling by an annual average of 2.3% a year to 4.33 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2016, from 4.70kt in 2010. We expect secondary aluminium, which accounts for the vast majority of the country's refined aluminium output, to grow at an average rate of 3.1%, reaching 1.19mn tonnes (mnt) by 2016, from 1.01mnt in 2010. Consumption growth will be more modest, growing by an average annual rate of 0.6% and reaching 2.07mnt in 2016, up from 2.02mnt in 2010.

We expect refined copper production to decline by 14.1% in 2011, based on year-to-date figures for the first nine months of the year. We have maintained our long-term forecasts, as we expect demand and supply of refined copper to pick up as reconstruction efforts get underway. Finally, we forecast nickel production to reach 180kt in 2016, marking an average annual rate of growth of 1.5% from 164kt in 2010, with Sumitomo Metal Mining leading growth as it increases output at its Niihama refinery, the country's largest, from 41ktpa to 63ktpa in 2013. In addition, we forecast consumption growth to average 1.8% a year, reaching 198kt in 2016.

Overall, we expect production of refined metals to outpace growth in demand, leading to an output surplus over the coming years. Indeed, we expect Japan to become a larger net nickel exporter from 2013. We therefore expect Japan's exports of refined metals to increase, with the primary export market being China, a market we expect to remain reliant on imported metals, at least in the short to medium term.

Our forecasts are based on the premise that the Japanese economy will slowly recover from recession and the March 2011 earthquake and continue its pre-crisis trend of slow growth. Consequently, there are downside risks to our forecasts depending on the performance of the wider economy. If the country shows signs of a slower than expected recovery we will consider revising down our forecasts.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Japan Political SWOT
- Japan Economic SWOT
- Japan Business Environment SWOT
Global Steel Market Overview
- Table: BMI's Steel Forecasts
- Table: Steel Price Data
Commodities Forecast
- Copper
- Aluminium
- Lead
- Nickel
- Tin
- Zinc
Regional Overview
- Table: Top 10 Asian Steel Producers, 2009
Industry Forecast
- Steel
- Table: Steel Production Forecast, 2009-2016 (mnt)
- Nickel
- Table: Expansion Plans
- Table: Production And Consumption, 2009-2016 (Kt)
- Copper
- Table: Refined Copper Production, 2009-2016 (Mnt)
- Table: Refined Copper Consumption, 2009-2016 (Mnt)
- Aluminium
- Table: Primary And Secondary Production, 2009-2016
- Table: Refined Aluminium Production, 2009-2016 (Mnt)
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Japan - Macroeconomic Activity, 2011-2016
Competitive Landscape
- Steel
- Table: Top Japanese Steel Producers, Worldwide Capacity, 2008
- Production And Domestic Sales
- Table: Japan's Iron And Steel Production ('000 metric tonnes)
- Table: Japan's Crude Steel Production By Process, 2006-2009 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Japan's Steel Production By Category, 2006-2009 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Japan's Steel Production, 2006-2009 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Japan's Steel Production By Products, 2007-2009 ('000 tonnes)
- Trade
- Table: Japan's Exports, January-July 2010
- Foreign Ventures
- JFE Steel
- Sumitomo Metal Industries Limited
- Kobe Steel Limited
- Latest Developments
- Financial Results
- Table: Output At Sumitomo Steel Works In Japan, 2007 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Crude Steel Production At NSC Steel Works In Japan, 2008 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Crude Steel Production Capacity At JFE Steel Works In Japan ('000 tonnes)
- Aluminium
- Table: Japan's Production Of Aluminium And Fabricated Products, Q208-Q409 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Japan's Production Of Aluminum And Its Fabricated Products, 2009 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Aluminum Imports And Exports, 2009 ('000 tonnes)
- Table: Japan - Demand Of Aluminium End-Uses, 2009 ('000 tonnes)
Company Profiles
- Nippon Steel Corporation
- Sumitomo Metal Industries
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=329507&dt=t

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