2013-02-03 16:30:10 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Japan Petrochemicals Report 2013"

BMI's Japan petrochemicals report examine trends in the olefins, polymers and aromatics segments and assesses the long-term viability of domestic production as Japanese producers face tougher competition and growing pressure on margins. The report also looks at the strengths and weaknesses of the Japanese petrochemicals industry and how producers are minimising investment risk.

The Japanese petrochemicals industry has been beset by declining domestic demand, the appreciation of the yen and competition from new plants starting up in the Middle East and Asia. The situation is unlikely to improve radically in 2013 with growth set to decline to 1.2% from 1.5% as the country struggles to find new markets and suffers because of weakening demand both at home and abroad. Meanwhile, the

yen is set to appreciate from an average of JPY78/US$ in 2012 to JPY75/US$ in 2013 and we believe feedstock prices will remain high. In this context, competition is likely to be fierce with an additional 3.39mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of ethylene capacity set to come online in Asia over 2013 (on top of growth of 6.25mntpa in 2012). Closures are planned over the next two years as Japanese producers seek to restructure operations, but a further slump in both domestic and regional markets could lead to permanent shut-downs.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529394_japan_petrochemicals_report_2013.aspx


BMI has the following views:

* Petrochemicals production is likely to hit a trough in H113 before beginning a slow but steady recovery in following quarters. Activity will be largely related to the release of pent-up demand and an end to delays in post-earthquake reconstruction.
* Mitsubishi Chemical is set to reduce total ethylene capacity at its Kashima complex by 340,000tpa, reducing total national capacity to 6.46mn tpa by 2017.
* Tosoh's proposed restructuring of operations in Nanyo could lead to a net loss of 320,000tpa of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) capacity, thereby tightening feedstock supply to the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry.
* A total of 179,000tpa of polypropylene (PP) capacity is scheduled to come offstream over the next two years, although low operating rates in the segment may prompt further reductions.
* Japan has fallen from first to third place in the Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) over the past year, despite a 0.8 point rise in its score to 80.1 points. While an improved country risk component has helped raise its score, the country's declining basic chemicals capacities - coupled with increased competition from elsewhere in Asia - have undermined its score. Japan is now 0.4 points behind China and 4.3 points ahead of Singapore. While it is unlikely to fall in the rankings, BMI envisages China and South Korea pulling ahead in the longterm.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Japan Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
- Japan Political SWOT
- Japan Economic SWOT
- Japan Business Environment SWOT
Global Petrochemicals Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
Emerging Asia Petrochemicals Overview
Japan Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Olefins
- Polymers
- Aromatics
- Financial Results and Corporate Strategy
- Table: Japan's Petrochemicals Producers Results, JPYbn
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Japan's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017, ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Japan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Monitor
- Asahi Kasei Corporation
- Maruzen Petrochemicals Company
- Mitsubishi Chemical
- Mitsui Chemicals
- Nippon Petrochemicals Company
- Sumitomo Chemical Group
- Tosoh Corporation
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Demographic Data
- Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Japan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Japan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Japan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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