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Japan Shipping Report Q1 2014

Japan Shipping Market: New market analysis published

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2014-02-07 19:01:01 - Japan Shipping Report Q1 2014 - a new market research report on

Growth Still Expected To Slow In 2014 Despite some positive signs, analysts remain rather downbeat about Japan´s economic prospects. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe´s three policy ´arrows´ raised expectations in 2013, but we do not think the initial impetus created is sustainable into 2014. The first two arrows - aggressive monetary and fiscal stimuli - played their part, but the third, a combination of industrial reform and revitalisation appears to be still tied up in legislative negotiation. Despite strong encouragement from the government, a recent Yomiuri survey found that only one third of companies were considering boosting wages, and those that were, were boosting one-off bonuses rather than base pay. After strong quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) GDP growth of 3.7% in Q213, there



was a sharp slowdown to 1.9% in Q313. We have raised our estimate for GDP growth in 2013 to 2.4%, reflecting the slower-than-expected winding down from the initial boost from ´Abenomics´.

But given our expectation of slower private consumption growth, private sector investment caution, and sluggish net exports, all against a background of continuing fiscal and debt pressures, we are continuing to predict GDP expansion at a modest 1.3% in 2014. The fact that Tokyo has been selected for the 2020 summer Olympics provides some medium term upside, but even here we are cautious about the ability capital spending on the games to lift Japanese growth above trend.

Headline Industry Data

- 2014 Port of Nagoya tonnage forecast to grow by 2.5% to reach 216.647mn tonnes, slower than the 4.3% growth rate achieved the preceding year. Box traffic at the same port will grow by 2.6% to 2.752mn twenty-foot equivalents (TEUs), up from 1% in the preceding year.

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Mike King
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