2013-12-12 18:08:07 - Fast Market Research recommends "Japan Tourism Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI's Japan Tourism report looks at the long term potential for growth in the Japanese market, with the announcement of Tokyo's successful bid as the 2020 host of the summer Olympics providing a valuable boost to tourism industry over the next seven years. Domestic economic limitations are likely to depress growth in the outbound market, but overall we expect solid growth across all key market indicators.
Japan is in many ways still recovering from the widespread devastation of the Great East Japan earthquake, the resulting tsunami and the nuclear crisis of March 2011. In the immediate short-term inbound and domestic tourism were heavily impacted, with arrivals to Japan falling by 27.78% to 6.2mn in 2011. Strong recovery in 2012 and 2013
mean we expect the 2011 arrivals figure to be surpassed in 2014, and moving forward we expect good year on year growth in terms of arrivals to Japan as tourists regain confidence in this historically popular destination. This will be bolstered by Japan winning the bid to host the 2020 Olympics, which will see a range of infrastructure improvements taking place, as well as wide spread marketing campaigns which will raise the global profile of the country.
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The global credit crunch will continue to have an impact on long distance travel from the major markets in Europe and the United States however expect any decreases to be offset by the increase in tourism from the wider Asia Pacific region, where many countries are experiencing strong economic growth. In particular China and South Korea offer fantastic opportunities for growth, dependent however upon the easing of diplomatic tensions between Japan and both countries on the basis of territorial disputes.
Outbound travel is on less steady ground, with little growth expected over the next few years. Low GDP growth and little expansion of private financial consumption are impacting on the ability of Japanese to travel abroad, and as such we expect outbound travel to show only moderate growth from 24.2mn in 2013 to 25.1mn in 2017.
Infrastructure is in need of extensive investment as Japan continues to work towards recovery from the damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami. This investment has become more important with the announcement of the forthcoming Olympics. While a great deal of progress was made in 2012, a substantial amount of work remains in the project pipeline, with many initiatives delayed by restrictions on investment caused by the continuing stagnation of Japan's domestic economy. Despite these limitations BMI expects the construction sector to see 3.2% growth in 2013.
* The hotel market in Japan remains strong, with new hotels including the Intercontinental Osaka launched in 2013 and several other hotels under development including the Ritz-Carlton Kyoto, a Mariott Miyako Hotel opening in Osaka in 2014 and the Four Seasons Hotel Kyoto expected to open in 2015.
* Investment in air travel is gaining ground, with expansions planned at Narita and Haneda airports which will aid the development of the long distance travel market. The country's already extensive rail network continues to receive substantial investment with three major projects currently under construction and a fourth expected to begin in 2014.
* The total arrival figure forecast has been revised to 12.5mn in 2017, following year on year growth of around 8%, based primarily on the strength of Asia Pacific region markets.
* This quarter BMI has given Japan an overall Tourism Industry Risk/Reward rating of 54.35, ahead of the Philippines and Laos but behind Sri Lanka, placing the country 14th in the Asia Pacific market.
* Key events in 2014 include the Sapporo Snow Festival, the Cherry Blossoms festival, the Tokyo Sumo Tournament, and a range of other cultural and historical celebrations.
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