2013-09-16 09:12:49 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Jordan Telecommunications Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
The Jordanian market was volatile in 2012 and the medium-term outlook is somewhat uncertain. In our view, there is limited growth left in mobile subscriptions, and new subscription additions depend predominantly on lower income rural areas and refugees from Syria. Moreover, the government's decision to double taxes on mobile handsets and subscriptions threatens to limit subscriber growth and usage. However, as operators continue to invest in their 3G networks, we expect a significant rise in 3G penetration and use of high value data services to help prop up ARPUs over the long run.
* There were 402,000 net additions in Jordan's mobile market in Q113, equal to q-o-q growth of 4.4% and y-o-y growth of 18.0%. This brought the
penetration rate to 143.9%.
* Mobile ARPU continued its downward trend, as operators reported an average drop of more than 10% in Q113.
* The fixed-line sector also contracted in Q11, with the number of subscriptions shrinking by 1.8% q-o-q. According to regulatory data, in March 2013 there were 392,869 fixed-line subscriptions and a penetration rate of 6.1%.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/684734_jordan_telecommunications_report_q4_2 ..
Jordan remained in 10th position in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings table for Middle East And North Africa in the Q413 update, with an overall score of 45.8. Jordan scores below the regional average in the Industry Rewards, Country Rewards and Country Risk categories of our ratings table. The government's decision to raise taxes on the telecoms sector occurred after this quarter's Risk/Rewards Ratings were calculated, but we warn that they are likely to bring down the country's score significantly in subsequent quarters. As well as affecting its Industry Risks score, the impact of higher taxes may also be reflected in the Industry Rewards category.
Key Trends And Developments
June 2013, Jordan's three mobile operators, Orange Jordan, Zain Jordan and Umniah, criticised the government for the high level of taxation on the telecoms sector. The discussion followed the publication of a survey by Arab Advisors of wireless tariffs in 19 Arab countries, pointing out that Jordan was the second most heavily taxed mobile sector in the Arab world, behind Sudan. Despite this criticism, on July 11 2013 Jordan's government announced its decision to raise taxes on mobile services and hardware by 100%. These included a tax increase from 8% to 16% on the purchase of mobile handsets and from 12% to 24% on both prepaid and postpaid mobile phone subscriptions. After the tax hike, Jordan's total telecoms sector taxation rate reached 40%, the highest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
At the end of the month, the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC) of Jordan announced the launch of the anticipated 4G and additional 3G spectrum auction. However, due to increased electricity prices and telecoms taxes, all three mobile operators boycotted the sale. At the time of writing, there had been no change in the situation.
Following sharp criticism of the increased taxes from operators and consumers alike, in August 2013 the Jordanian Consumer Protection Society announced plans to file a lawsuit against the government's taxation policy. The society stated its intention to file the lawsuit as soon as possible with the Higher Court of Justice. In Jordan as elsewhere, BMI maintains the view that using operators as 'cash cows' is a shortsighted approach to the ICT sector, which will discourage investment in new technologies and limit the industry's potential growth, as well as the positive impact its growth could have on the wider economy.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Mobile SWOT
- Wireline SWOT
- Business Environment
- Table: Telecoms - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecast
- Table: Telecoms - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data & Forecast
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecast
- Table: Telecoms - Internet - Historical Data & Forecast
Industry Risk/Rewards Ratings
- MENA Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: MENA Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q413
- Regional Perspective
- Table: Jordan Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2012
- Key Developments
- Mobile Growth
- Table: Jordan Mobile Market ('000)
- Market Share
- Mobile Content
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Selected VAS
- Table: Market Overview
- Table: Orange
- Table: Zain
- Table: Umniah
- MENA Mobile Content
- Data Networks And Devices Drive Mobile VAS
- OTT Services Increase
- Operators Give Competition A Go
- M-Commerce Takes Off
- Operators Look To Non-Voice Corporate Solutions
- Fixed Line
- Table: Fixed-Line Subscribers (2010-2013)
- Table: Jordan Internet Subscribers By Access Technologies, 2009-2012
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Jordan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Latest Developments
- Table: Key Players - Jordan Telecoms Markets
- Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators (US$mn)
- Jordan Telecom
- Zain Jordan
- Diversified Portfolio Key To Ericsson's Regional Outperformance
- Table: Selected Ericsson Activities In MENA
- Table: Jordan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Jordan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Jordan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Jordan's Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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