2013-10-13 12:39:02 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Algeria continues to dominates the African gas market. We expect that the country will progressively switch towards a higher proportion of LNG use for its exports as pipeline consumers in Europe are expected to see a flattening demand over the coming years. These exports will be fuelled by a steadily growing gas production, coming from projects such as Timimoun or Touat set to come online in the next few years. Adoption of new hydrocarbons regulation in January 2013 could spur exploration in Algeria in the coming year, especially in offshore and unconventional acreages. We are nonetheless sceptical about the tax reform, which could prove burdensome for oil and gas producers. The key trends and developments in Algeria's oil and gas
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* The Touat projects appear to be on schedule, with target start-up date for 2016. The field could at 4.5bcm of gas to the country's output at peak, contributing to our view that despite rapid depletion of major fields, the country could revive its gas production.
* Anadarko's El Merk oil project started production in line with planned scheduled throughout Q213. The project reached an output of 12, 000 barrels per day (b/d) in May, which is expected to peak at about 130,000b/d by the end of the year.
* There have been three other key developments in Algeria's hydrocarbons sector since the beginning of the year. Firstly, the attacks on the In Amenas plant and Ain Chikh pipeline. Secondly, the adoption of the 2013 Hydrocarbon law, revamping the production tax system, state ownership and exploration incentives. Finally, the start up of gas production at Eni-operated Menzel Ledjmet Est.
* The Algerian Parliament in January 2013 approved a new national hydrocarbons law that reforms some of the more unwelcome policies that were established in 2005. We believe that while it creates strong exploration incentives, the new production tax regime remains unclear and burdensome, and could deter some companies from entering the market. Additionally, increased state ownership, especially in downstream and midstream, is creating further uncertainty for investors.
* Terrorist attacks, in particular at BP's In Amenas gas plant, are creating security concerns for investors, further fuelled by the armed conflict in neighbouring Mali. Most likely, these events will push state hydrocarbons regulator ALNAFT to postpone the long-expected offshore licensing round in order to wait for improved investor sentiment.
* We forecast that oil production will rise from an estimated 1.847mn b/d in 2012 to 1.926mn b/d in 2016 as ambitious new projects, mostly located in the Berkine basin, come on stream. Production will steadily decline afterward to reach around 1.873mn b/d in 2020.
* Consumption of crude is forecast to rise steadily between 2012 and 2022. This is partly in line with the expected GDP growth rate. We anticipate that crude consumption will rise from an estimated 342,400b/d in 2012 to 467,700b/d by 2022.
* We forecast that gas production will increase from an estimated 84.4bcm in 2012 to 107bcm by 2022 as ambitious new projects, mostly located in the Ahnet, Berkine and Illizi basins, come on stream. Production will be further boosted by increased output at major fields such as Hassi R'Mel and by enhanced recovery rates at the In Salah Gas Project.
* Gas demand is set to rise quickly on the back of solid economic growth. BMI forecasts average annual growth of about 5% to 2022, with consumption forecast to rise from an estimated 34.1bcm in 2013 to 59.1bcm in 2022.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- BMI Industry View
- Industry Forecast
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Algeria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
- Table: Algeria Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Algeria Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Algeria Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Algeria Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Algeria - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Africa Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Riches Rewards Lie Underground, While Above-Ground Risks Continue To Loom
- Table: Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Downstream Woes Still Weight Down On Reward Potential
- Table: Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
- Algeria Energy Market Overview
- Table: Algeria - Upstream Projects Database
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- International Energy Relations
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Algeria
- Gas Pipelines
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players In The Algerian Energy Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- BHP Petroleum
- Other Companies - Summary
- Africa Overview
- Subsalt Expectations
- Oil Flows Under Stress
- East African Gas Boom
- Fuelling Development: The Downstream Race
- Post-Revolutionary Blues
Global Industry Overview
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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