2012-09-04 08:49:44 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Cameroon Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: With declining production and few new projects expected to come on-stream in the next decade, Cameroon's upstream oil outlook seems rather unsteady. Meanwhile, a more efficient usage of associated gas, through the limitation of flaring, and the development of domestic resources offer prospects for booming growth in the gas upstream with opportunity for LNG exports.
Main trends and developments we highlight for Cameroon's Oil and Gas sector are as follows:
* BMI expects growth in oil production to be somewhat irregular over the next decade with output of 71,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, peaking at 87,000b/d in 2014 and 2015 before falling back to 79,000b/d in 2017, then hitting 84,000b/d in 2018 and finally settling at around
78,000b/d in 2021. This chaotic growth is explained by the limited number of new projects, which implies that each time new volumes come on-stream, total output surges before slowly decreasing as a result of a decline in output from fields that are already producing.
* Meanwhile, consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average rate of 5.6% from 2011 to 2021. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from 27,000b/d in 2011, to hit 47,000b/d by 2021.
* BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from 0.03bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 5.78bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start monetising associated gas resources. Gas production is to be boosted further by new projects with considerable associated gas production, such as Victoria Oil and Gas' Logbaba project (6bcm). Gas output growth will be bolstered by domestic demand but also by export prospects, notably in the form of LNG as suggested by the proposed 4.8bcm LNG terminal in Kribi.
* Gas demand is set to rise at an average rate of 23.7% on the back of numerous infrastructure projects that will boost domestic consumption. The most notable of these projects is the 150 megawatt (MW) Kribi power plant. As a result, we see gas consumption rising from 0.03bcm in 2011 to 0.18bcm by 2021.
* Cameroonian crude reserves are likely to continue declining as increased output will result in high depletion rates. We see proven oil reserves falling from 200mn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 160mn bbl in 2021. The reserves-to-production ratio will fall from little more than nine years to under six years. With regard to gas, the outlook is less dire as the potential for discoveries offers more stable prospects. We see reserves hovering between 140bcm and 150bcm throughout the decade.
* In the downstream sector, the authorities have adopted a very realistic stance. The government has ambitious plans to expand capacity at Societe Nationale de Raffinage (SONARA), the country's only refinery located in Cape Limboh, from 42,200b/d to 70,300b/d; and to upgrade the facility so that it will be able to process the heavy crude oil that is produced in Cameroon, and not simply imported light grades.
* Cameroon's dependence on energy prices leads to high volatility in the country's export revenues. Our assumptions of tight supply due to booming demand in emerging markets is clearly an opportunity for the country. As a result, we assume OPEC basket oil prices to increase from US$107.52 bbl in 2011 to US$111.47/bbl in 2012, thus creating an upside risk for the Cameroonian macroeconomic outlook.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451235_cameroon_oil_and_gas_report_q3_2012.a ..
Partial Table of Contents:
- Cameroon Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 ('000 b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Cameroon Energy Market Overview
- Table: Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil and Gas Reserves
- Table: Cameroon Oil & Gas - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Cameroon Oil & Gas - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Oil Supply and Demand
- Gas Supply and Demand
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Cameroon
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings
- Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings
- Cameroon Upstream Rating - Overview
- Cameroon Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Cameroon Upstream Rating - Risks
- Cameroon Downstream Rating - Overview
- Cameroon Downstream Rating - Rewards
- Cameroon Downstream Rating - Risks
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Cameroon Energy Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Victoria Oil & Gas - Summary
- Sterling Energy - Summary
- Petronas - Summary
- Noble Energy - Summary
- Bowleven Oil And Gas - Summary
- Kosmos Energy - Summary
- Addax/Pecten - Summary
Africa - Regional Appendix
- Table: Cameroon Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Cameroon Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Cameroon Oil Production Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Cameroon Oil Production Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Cameroon Refining Capacity Historical Data & Forecast, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Cameroon Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecast, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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