2013-03-14 10:45:01 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Caribbean Tourism Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

This quarter, BMI has revised and restructured its tourism reports, incorporating a greater range of data and focusing on the hotel industry, the value of the tourism industry itself, and the impact of macroeconomic factors.

The BMI Caribbean Tourism report examines the growth and development of the Caribbean tourism industry, both inbound and outbound, paying particular attention to the hotels industry. The reports cover Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bonaire, the British Virgin Isles, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curacao, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Saba, St Eustatius, St Kitts, St Lucia, St Vincent, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, and the US Virgin Islands.

The report considers the impact of the continuing global economic uncertainty on the Caribbean

tourism industry, and evaluates the potential impact which the European debt crisis and the imminent US fiscal cliff will have on the region's tourist arrival figures, as these two areas represent the first and third biggest markets for the Caribbean tourism industry. The report will also address the potential effects of the Brazilian World Cup in 2014, and Olympics in 2016, as Latin America represents the second largest tourist market based on arrivals figures. It is possible these two events will attract potential Latin American visitors away from the Caribbean, with the lure of once-in-a-lifetime events that are rather closer to home.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552272_caribbean_tourism_report_q2_2013.aspx


There has been a rise in global tourism levels, despite the economic uncertainty of the past few years, and BMI estimates that 2012 has seen a 4% increase, highlighting the resilience of the tourism industry in the face of a global recession. Surprisingly, despite its reputation as an expensive holiday destination (which saw it lose a lot of custom in the immediate aftermath of the events in 2007-2009), the Caribbean has seen a corresponding, albeit more moderate, upswing in its own tourist arrivals. In 2012, BMI estimates that the Caribbean saw air arrivals of about 17.3mn people, and we forecast that this will rise by 1.6% to 17.6mn in 2013. By 2017, the air arrivals figures are forecast to reach around 18.8mn per year. Equally, cruise figures are estimated to have amounted to 15.8mn during 2012, and are forecast to reach 17.1mn by 2017. This means that total arrivals figures for 2013 should be 33mn, rising to 35mn by 2017.

This growth has not been as pronounced as in other areas. This is largely due to the fact that the region's biggest tourist markets are the US and Europe. The former has struggled to maintain its economic stability and is now facing the looming threat of an imminent fiscal cliff, while the latter is currently under the cloud of its sovereign debt crisis. Both scenarios could result in further economic instability and many potential tourists are opting to stay at home or go to cheaper, closer tourist destinations. Moreover, despite continuous lobbying of the EU, European Parliament and the UK Government by the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), the increase in air passenger duty from the UK to the Caribbean has not been cancelled, which is having an ongoing negative impact on those islands relying on the UK as a main tourism market.

In addition, much of Caribbean tourism has been concentrated in the cruise industry, which has suffered in line with other luxury travel options. Given the dependence of Caribbean economies on tourism, this will have a significant effect on economic growth in the region.

Further evidence of the continuing impact of the global economic downturn on the Caribbean can be found in the fact that although BMI's global figures show a 3.3% increase in hotel rooms in 2012, and we forecast a further 5.9% growth over 2013, there has not been an equivalent rise in hotel numbers over the past year in the Caribbean. Although things are picking up and are likely to continue to do so, BMI believes that there has been a decline in investment in hotels and the tourist industry between 2008 and 2010, which will continue to have a residual effect on the islands' tourism industry for some time to come. There has been significant growth in tourist accommodation in Aruba, the Bahamas, the French Antilles, Jamaica, Puerto Rico and the villa sector in Barbados. However, elsewhere in the region, especially in the eastern Caribbean, there has been far less new investment in tourism infrastructure, particularly in the accommodation sector. The Caribbean hotel numbers figures are due to remain the same between 2012 and 2013, at just over 4,400. However, this figure should rise moderately to around 4,600 by 2017, representing an increase in value for the domestic hotels and restaurants industries of almost US$2bn between 2013 and 2017.

Despite the recent upswing, this lack of investment will continue to have an effect on jobs in particular for some time to come. This is particularly relevant, because according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, travel and tourism is expected to contribute approximately 4.6% to regional GDP in 2012, rising in nominal terms to 4.7% of GDP by 2021. Tourism accounts for about 15% of employment across the Caribbean. The Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) represents over 30 countries and is seeking to boost the industry further. Over 2012 there were a number of Conferences to this end, including the Annual Sustainable Tourism Conference in April, and the recent State of the Tourism Industry Conference on St Kitts in October, at which the CTO representative, Sean Smith, stated that the 'Caribbean tourism industry was holding its own' and arrivals remained 'buoyant' throughout 2012.

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