2012-04-24 05:29:47 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Croatia Telecommunications Report Q2 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
The Q212 report on Croatia's telecoms market leaves BMI's forecasts for mobile, fixed and broadband subscriber levels and growth to 2016 unchanged following revisions in the Q112 report. Our five-year forecasts are based on the most recent available figures to be published by Croatia's telecoms regulator, the Croatian Post and Electronic Communications Agency (HAKOM) and by the country's leading network operators. It also contains data analysis of the most recent results from telecoms operators. In addition to forecasts and the latest data analysis, it examines the trends and developments in the sector as well as an update to telecoms regulations.
We estimate Croatia's mobile penetration rate was 122.3% at the end of 2011. Although VIPnet performed much better than we anticipated
in Q311, T-HT and Tele2 recorded subscriber losses in Q411, which was unexpected given the normal strong growth in the run-up to Christmas. While T-HT has not given any reasons for the subscriber losses, we believe this is a continuation of the discounting of inactive prepaid subscribers. Tele2, which has been reporting on a 90-day active subscriber definition for several years, shed about 60,000 inactive prepaid customers in the quarter due to a change in IT systems. However, the company also noted seasonal churn in the prepaid segment. We believe VIPnet is reaping the benefits of its acquisition of B.net, allowing it to offer fully bundled mobile, fixed, broadband and pay-TV services in competition with T-HT and we estimate it outperformed its rivals again in 4Q11.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/359427_croatia_telecommunications_report_q2_ ..
Regulator HAKOM's figures show a 13.7% q-o-q decrease in the number of fixed lines in 3Q11, for which it has not provided any explanation. T-HT's numbers show a more moderate decline and the regulator's own data for market share show a continued decline in T-HT's market share rather than the reverse. With only one quarter's figures available, BMI is unwilling to speculate on the possible reasons for such a large fall in alternative fixed-lines and will wait until HAKOM makes Q411 data available -- and possibly restates the 3Q11 figures -- before drawing conclusions and making any adjustments to our five-year forecast.
According to HAKOM, the number of broadband subscribers grew by 20.8% y-o-y in 2010. The rate of growth has been slowing steadily but remains relatively strong, buoyed by operator investments in mobile broadband networks and customer uptake of bundled services including fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV. The number of mobile broadband subscribers has been growing at a faster pace than fixed broadband subscribers, however growth has been relatively moderate and, as in the fixed broadband market, slowed markedly in 2011, which is likely the result of the recession as consumers cut back on non-essential spending and possibly due to price rises, the consequence of the 6% tax imposed on mobile service revenue.
The tax was first introduced by the Croatian government in August 2009 and was rescinded in October 2011. However, the government elected in December 2011 voted to reinstate the tax with effect from January 2012 until Croatia's expected accession to the EU in June 2013. The move has been criticised by the operators and the EC. However, there have been some positive regulatory developments in the December 2011 award of new licences and spectrum for wireless broadband services, and the January 2012 opening of a public discussion regarding the use of 900MHz and 1800MHz frequencies for 4G LTE services.
This quarter sees Croatia move from 12th to nine position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Rankings for Central and Eastern Europe, with improvements to its scores for Industry Rewards, Industry Risks, Country Risks and Telecoms Rating. The Industry Risks score was upgraded, following the removal of the 6% mobile services tax, but the reinstatement of the tax is likely to result in a further downgrade in the Q312 report.
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