2012-05-17 07:32:27 - New Materials research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
The Czech steel industry is likely to enter recession in 2012 as exports come under pressure amid a slump in European demand, according to BMI's latest Czech Republic Metals Report.
In 2011 Czech crude steel output grew 7.8% y-o-y to 5.58mn tonnes, which followed a year when production was up 12.7% to 5.18mn tonnes. Czech monthly output began declining after a peak of 489,000 tonnes in March, falling to 368,000 tonnes in November before staging a modest return to growth in the subsequent two months. The decline in production coincided with a consistent fall in product prices that squeezed margins, despite falling raw material costs. This prompted ArcelorMittal to announce in December 2011 that it was seeking to reduce its Czech
workforce by around 10%, implying production cut backs. However, it stopped short of idling facilities, as it plans to do in neighbouring Poland.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/384838_czech_republic_metals_report_q2_2012. ..
Given the downturn in the Czech Republic's main export market, Germany, and plans by ArcelorMittal to further scale back production, BMI expects a contraction in the steel industry in 2012. Crude steel is forecast to fall by around 10%, a slight revision from the previous forecast of an 11% drop. Therefore crude output will total around 5mn tonnes in 2012. Meanwhile, hot-rolled output will fall 10% to 4.4mn tonnes in 2012, a slight downward revision from the previously forecast 4.46mn tonnes. A contraction will reverse many of the gains made over the past two years and ensures that the Czech Republic will struggle to return to the kind of production volumes seen before the 2008 crisis.
Steel exports are likely to decline by around 10% to 4.46mn tonnes in 2012 with the value of exports likely to decline. Domestic consumption of finished steel products is also set to decline, by 11% to 5.21mn tonnes. Both consumption and export figures are not, at this stage, likely to fall back to the 2009 low. Nevertheless, we have put back the full recovery to pre-2008 levels to 2016 with a long period of slow recovery as the problems in external markets are unlikely to abate significantly. The Czech steel industry's dependence on longs production, which represents two-thirds of Czech output, means it will mirror the flatlining European construction industry.
Report Table of Contents:
- Czech Republic Metals Industry SWOT
- Czech Republic Political SWOT
- Czech Republic Economic SWOT
- Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT
- Steel Market
- Table: BMI's Steel Forecasts
- Table: Steel Products And Inputs - Price Data
- Commodities Forecast
Europe Metals Overview
- Table: Czech Republic Steel Industry, 2009-2016 ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Czech Republic - Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2014-2021
- ArcelorMittal Ostrava
- Evraz Vitkovice Steel
- Trinecke zelezarny-Moravia Steel
- ZDB Group
- Zeleziarne Podbrezova
Country Snapshot: Czech Republic Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks
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