2013-03-12 14:29:06 - New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
The periodic flare up in sovereign debt stresses in the eurozone has left households and firms across Europe with frayed nerves.
Although Denmark is not inside the eurozone, its close proximity to the epicentre of the crisis, coupled with deep financial and trade links that have been solidified by the pegged exchange rate regime, have left the economy significantly weakened.
Denmark has been singled out as a relative safe haven given the relatively more favourable public debt dynamics and the fixed currency regime. However, this inflow of capital has masked structural economic problems, and should investors start leaving the country it could expose an array of problems, most problematic of which could be a drop in house prices.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552228_denmark_business_forecast_report_q2_2 ..
Major Forecast Changes
We have opted to downgrade our long-term growth forecast for Denmark, as we believe the country will struggle to boost productivity levels in the face of a rapidly ageing population. We now expect the real GDP to average just 1.2% over the next decade, from 1.6% previously.
Risks To Outlook
The biggest risk to Denmark's medium-term macroeconomic trajectory stems from ongoing economic and financial developments within the eurozone. Denmark has sizeable trade and investment linkages with the common currency bloc, and a major deterioration in growth in the core countries could push Denmark back into recessionary territory this year.
In light of growing disillusionment with the current government and inter-coalition tensions over the recent passing of tax legislation, there is potential for strains on the government's political cohesion to continue building. In turn, this could raise the potential for a break-up of the government and early elections being called further down the line.
Report Table of Contents:
Major Forecast Changes
Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Economic And Geopolitical Importance Rising; March Elections In Focus
- Greenland's economic and geopolitical importance is rising, as Arctic Circle countries and several Asian nations seek to tap the region's extensive natural resources, which are becoming more accessible due to global climate change. However, the Greenland government faces a dilemma over how rapidly it should open the door to foreign investment, especially amid local concerns about environmental issues and the possibility that new jobs could go to foreign workers. General elections in March 2013 will provide greater clarity on these matters.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Precarious Recovery In 2013
- Although we expect Danish real GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2013, from an estimated 0.1% contraction in 2012, the economic recovery will be precarious. Private sector consumption and investment remain highly exposed to house price fluctuations, meaning any shock to sentiment could severely derail the recovery. In such a scenario we would not rule out another full-year recession.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Chapter 3: Business Environment
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Chapter 4: Key Sectors
TABLE: DENMARK TELECOMS SECTOR - MOBILE - HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: DENMARK TELECOMS SECTOR - INTERNET - HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: DENMARK TELECOMS SECTOR - FIXED LINE - HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: DENMARK TELECOMS SECTOR - MONTHLY BLENDED MOBILE ARPU (DKK) - HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS
Other Key Sectors
TABLE: AUTOS SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: FOOD AND DRINK SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
TABLE: PHARMA SECTOR KEY INDICATORS
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Brighter Outlook In 2013
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
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