2013-03-14 10:38:58 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "East Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI Ratings - Brief Methodology
The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI's emerging markets universe.
The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo?
Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle - to what extent is this contributing to political risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552242_east_caribbean_business_forecast_repo ..
The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.
Business Environment Rating
The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Risk Ratings - Barbados
BMI Risk Ratings - Guyana
BMI Risk Ratings - Trinidad & Tobago
BMI Ratings - East Caribbean Table
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Barbados
Election To Return BLP To Power
- Polling data continue to support our view that Barbadian voters will likely throw out the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) government of Prime Minister Freundel Stuart, electing in its place Owen Arthur and his Barbados Labour Party (BLP). We expect that the election, recently called for February 21, will proceed smoothly, and that the BLP will maintain broad policy stability in the years ahead.
TABLE: BARBADOS - POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Barbados
GDP Growth To Remain Sluggish
- We expect Barbados will see its economy accelerate slightly over the next several years from estimated 0.6% real GDP growth in 2012, as the global recovery continues and UK tourists - critical to the island nation's economy - see their currency appreciate against the Barbadian dollar. However, the country remains highly vulnerable to both internal and external shocks that could weigh on growth.
TABLE: BARBADOS - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Guyana
Increasing Polarisation Prompts Ratings Downgrade
- Increasingly combative political rhetoric and a widening rift between the legislative and executive branches has prompted us to revise down our short-term political risk ratings for Guyana once again. The country's short-term risk rating remains one of the weakest in the Caribbean, reflecting our view that policy stagnation is highly likely to continue over the coming quarters.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Guyana
Sugar Sector Dampens Growth Outlook
- Given that we believe weakness in Guyana's sugar sector is likely to continue weighing on economic activity over the coming quarters, we have downgraded our 2013 growth forecast, as well as our 2012 estimate. That said, in line with our long-held view, we believe the mining and services sectors will continue to provide bright spots for our growth outlook this year.
TABLE: GUYANA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook - Trinidad & Tobago
Anti-Crime Initiatives To Have Limited Long-Term Impact
- We believe National Security Minister Jack Warner's plans to increase the military's role in domestic policing may help bring down crime in Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) in the near term.
Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook - Trinidad & Tobago
Energy Sector Recovery To Boost Growth In 2013
- Despite downgrading our 2012 growth estimate to 0.2% due to continued poor data in recent months, we maintain our 2013 real GDP growth forecast of 2.5% for 2013. We believe the modest acceleration in economic activity this year will be driven by a return to growth for the energy sector, as well as a stronger expansion of the non-energy sector.
TABLE: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Chapter 4: Country Summaries
TABLE: DOMINICA-DATA & FORECASTS
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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