2013-02-28 15:04:42 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: We estimate oil production in Gabon stayed relatively flat in 2012 at 247,000 barrels per day (b/d) compared to 2011's 244,000b/d. Over the course of our forecast period, we expect production to continue trending downward to reach 234,000 b/d in 2016. Although a planned offshore licensing round and planned exploration hold upside risk to our forecasts. But without additional volumes from new discoveries, Gabon's oil production is set to decline as output falls from maturing fields. Efforts to develop the country's gas potential hold the prospect for further gains, as does a proposed new refinery that would allow the country to become a net exporter of refined products.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Gabon's oil &
gas sector are as follows:
* BMI expects oil production to fall from 246,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, to 234,000b/d in 2016, as fields mature.
* Planned deepwater exploration and a proposed regulatory overhaul in advance of the deepwater licensing round set for 2013, hold the largest upside risk to our forecasts. However, at this stage few new drilling campaigns have been announced so BMI has left its oil reserves forecasts unchanged.
* The introduction of more attractive terms ahead off the offshore licensing round may not be enough to support strong interest in the country's bidding round, despite prospective offshore acreage. Reports that the government is using audits to demand claw back and increase its equity stakes in existing licences could undermine the country's attractive business environment and undermine interest in the blocks on offer.
* Additionally, with tensions between oil sector works and the government still high following mass strikes which saw nearly all production offline for several days in 2010, the government's efforts to revamp its regulatory framework could be undermined by labour unions.
* With the existing refinery scheduled to be shutdown in 2016, at the same time as the new facility is to come online, Gabon would not only avoid the need to import expensive refined fuels, but would also gain the capacity to become a fuel exporter. However, until a final investment decision (FID) is made on this project, we have chosen not to include it in our forecast despite having already assessed its potential impact.
* Consumption of crude is likely to rise very gradually and from a low base. We expect demand to rise from 14,000b/d in 2012 to 15,000 by 2016.
* BMI estimates that gas production will continue to rise in line with consumption over the next decade. The government's nascent Gas Master Plan, is likely to so increased use of gas as a feedstock for power and according to the government will increase upstream activity to harness non-associated gas resources in the country. The government continues to pledge a reduction in flaring; however, continued investment in the infrastructure to harness and transport gas remains necessary.
Full Report Details at
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.01 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Oil & Gas
- Table: Gabon Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data 2010-2015
- Table: Gabon Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data 2016-2021
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Gabon Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2010-2015
- Table: Gabon Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2016-2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Gabon Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2010-2015
- Table: Gabon Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2016-2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Gabon Refining - Production and Consumption 2010-2016
- Table: Gabon Refining - Production and Consumption 2016-2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Gabon Risk Reward Ratings
- Gabon Upstream
- Gabon Downstream
- Regional Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
- Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores
- Gabon Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- Table: Upstream Projects Database
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Gas Facilities
- Table: Table: Key Players - Gabon Energy Sector
- Addax Petroleum
- Other Companies - Summary
- Total Gabon
- Shell Gabon
- Maurel & Prom
- Vaalco Energy
- Tullow Oil
Global Industry Overview
- Global Energy Market Overview
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
- Inflection point
- New Frontiers In Production
- Africa - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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