2013-12-11 10:45:38 - Fast Market Research recommends "Ghana Business Forecast Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
The Ghanaian economy will enjoy strong economic growth over the medium term, propelled by the nascent oil and gas sector.
Ghana's abundant natural resources, fast growth trajectory and relative political stability augur for strong foreign investment inflows.
The current account deficit and fiscal deficits will remain key structural weaknesses in the economy.
Ghana's reputation for political stability remains intact following the December 2012 elections and the nation is widely regarded as a safe place to do business.
Major Forecast changes
No major forecast changes.
Key risks to outlook
The Ghanaian cedi remains vulnerable amid the sizeable current account deficit and could depreciate more swiftly than we anticipate.
oil revenues - perhaps stemming from insuf -ficient institutional capacity - could dent investor perceptions.
Report Table of Contents:
Major Forecast changes
Key risks to outlook
chapter 1: political outlook
BMi political risk ratings
court challenge Denied, uncertainty Diminished
- Although Ghana's Supreme Court ultimately decided that a re-run of the December 2012 presidential elections will not be required, the case has nevertheless strengthened Ghana's democratic credentials given the high level of transparency and independence. Now that the uncertainty has dissipated, the government will be able to focus on the considerable challenge posed by the size of the budget deficit.
taBLe: poLitica L oVerVie W
on the Ground: corruption perceptions rising
- In recent months, there have been several high-profile cases of alleged corruption in Ghana. Our analyst in Accra reports that corruption is perceived to be widespread and rising.
Long- term political outlook
Long- term political outlook - oil to prove a critical test For the polity
- Ghana's political risk profile is relatively favourable, especially in the context of West Africa. However, oil revenues will require careful management, presenting a formidable test for the government over the coming decade.
chapter 2: economic outlook
BMi economic risk ratings
Buoyant Growth ahead
- We maintain a positive outlook on Ghana, forecasting strong economic growth over the coming years on the back of booms in oil and gas, infrastructure and retail. However, there a number of key downside risks including low commodity prices and potential power shortages.
taBLe: econoMic actiVit Y
Fiscal Deficit To Remain Elevated
- We forecast that Ghana's fiscal deficit will remain wide, at 10.2% of GDP in 2013 and 8.6% of GDP in 2014. Oil revenues will help the budget balance, but the government will continue to grapple with a weighty public sector wage bill as well as the pressure to maintain social spending. 16
taBLe: F isca L poLicY
exchange rate policy
taBLe: eXcHanGe rate
regional economic outlook
Lack of regional integration Will Hamper Growth
- AfDB President Donald Kaberuka has highlighted how growth in Africa is being impeded by a lack of integration between states. BMI shares this view, and believes that the region's manufacturing sector will be a major loser if integration is not pushed forward, with repercussions for job creation and political risk.
chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
the Ghanaian economy to 2022
oil to Boost Growth over the Long term
- We are sanguine on Ghana's growth prospects for the coming 10 years, forecasting that annual real GDP growth will average more than 6.0%. The ramping up of domestic oil production will provide significant impetus to the economy, allowing the mitigation of fiscal and current account drags.
taBLe: LonG-terM Macroecono Mic Forecasts
chapter 4: Business environment
BMi Business environment risk ratings
Business environment outlook
taBLe: BMi Business anD operation risK ratinGs
taBLe: BM i L eGaL FraMeWorK ratinG
taBLe: L aBour F orce QuaLit Y
taBLe: aFrica - annuaL FDi inFLoWs
taBLe: traDe anD inVest Ment ratinGs
taBLe: top eXport Destinations ( us$Mn)
chapter 6: BMi Global assumptions
unchanged outlook, But Headline risks remain
taBLe: GLoBaL assuMptions
taBLe: DeVeLopeD states, reaL GD p Gro WtH, %
taBLe: BM i V ersus BL ooMBerG consensus reaL GDp GroWtH Forecasts, %
taBLe: eMerGinG Mar Kets, reaL GD p Gro WtH, %
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/751975_ghana_business_forecast_report_q1_201 ..
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