2012-10-28 15:22:21 - New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Hungary Tourism Report Q4 2012"

The Hungary Tourism Report considers the current state of the tourism sector and assesses its potential over the next five years. Although growth slowed markedly at the end of 2011, the year was favourable for foreign tourism in Hungary. Growth in tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night) was the strongest for many years, up by almost 8% on 2010. By contrast, domestic tourism demand was weak. BMI continues to expect a slowdown in foreign tourism growth in 2012, largely due to the grim outlook facing the eurozone - the major source region. Recovery in the tourism sector is anticipated from 2013.

The report analyses hospitiality sector data on overnight stays by both foreign and domestic tourists, as well as

reviewing key source markets in the accommodation sector. Aside from the traditional spa and health tourism sectors (a motivational factor for about 15% of foreign tourists), conference tourism - which recorded a strong rebound in 2010 - is also considered. Medical tourism is another burgeoning area. The bankruptcy of Malev Hungarian Airlines in February 2012 also presents opportunities for rival carriers.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/464494_hungary_tourism_report_q4_2012.aspx


Figures for Q112 show growth in foreign tourist arrivals was a modest 3% year-on-year (y-o-y). More recent data from the hospitality sector for January-May are more positive, particularly in rleation to growth in tourism from Europe. Key factors underlying the data are a turnaround in German tourism to Hungary (after declining in the previous three years), and buoyant growth from Russia and Italy.

Increased Russian and Italian tourists accounted for about 30% of the overall improvement in international tourism nights in all accommodation establishments in the five-month period.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

* BMI has raised slightly its growth forecasts for foreign tourist arrivals in 2012 and 2013 to 3.8% and 4.4% respectively.
* Our real GDP growth forecast for the eurozone has been lowered slightly for 2012 to -0.6% from -0.5%, rising to only 0.9% growth (down from 1.2%) in 2013.
* BMI believes recent strong growth from key source markets partly reflects tourists seeking alternative holiday destinations due to the Arab Spring.
* BMI forecasts the Hungarian forint to appreciate modestly from its current position, ending the year at HUF275.00/EUR, and to go further towards HUF272.00/EUR by the end of 2013.
* We forecast growth in the number of foreign attendees at international conferences in Hungary is likely to remain subdued in 2012, as it was in 2011.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Hungary Tourism SWOT
- Hungary Political SWOT
- Hungary Economic SWOT
- Hungary Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016
- Accommodation
- Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 ('000, unless stated)
- Expenditure
- Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Table: Hungarian Airline Market Key Players, 2011
- Car Rental Firms
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016
Market Overview - Hospitality
- Table: Leading Accommodation Companies, 2011
- Accommodation Developments
- Infrastructure
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Hungary's Security Risk Ratings
- Europe Security Overview
- Political Risk Analysis - The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- Europe In A Global Context
- Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
- What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Company Profiles
- Accor-Pannonia Hotels
- Danubius Hotels Group
- Hilton Worldwide
- Malev Hungarian Airlines
- Wizz Air
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings - Methodology
- Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
- Table: Weighting Of Components
- Sources

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