2013-02-01 18:11:25 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI believes new forecasts released by the Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturers (SIAM) in October 2012 are too bearish. SIAM now expects passenger car sales to grow by 1-3% for FY2013 from a previous forecast of 10%. According to S Sandilya, the President of SIAM, the slowdown in economic growth coupled with high interest rates will further decelerate growth.

However, we agree with the headwinds seen by SIAM for the Indian auto market and are also revising our FY2013 forecasts for the overall passenger vehicle sales market downwards to come in at 2.86mn units, a growth rate of 6.8% from 9.1% previously. On the whole though, we are more bullish on India's auto industry than SIAM.


Full Report Details at
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www.fastmr.com/prod/529375_india_autos_report_q1_2013.aspx


While SIAM citied the recent diesel price hike as one of the reasons to downgrade growth in passenger car sales to 1-3%, we do not believe that the hike will have such a huge negative impact on this segment. We do not expect the spread between diesel and petrol to narrow much further going forward due to political pressures to maintain diesel subsidies. Although the price of diesel has increased, it is still much cheaper than petrol. Therefore, the strong demand for diesel vehicles is expected to continue.

Moreover, while sales of passenger cars and vans have stagnated recently, utility vehicles (UVs) such as MUVs have enjoyed very strong year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for the past few months. It is our view that this segment will outperform the overall passenger vehicle market going forward and we expect this strong growth in UV sales to continue and provide an additional boost to overall passenger vehicle sales for FY2013.

BMI also believes that SIAM's commercial vehicle (CV) forecast revisions are overly bearish and we are taking a more bullish stance. We are revising our CV sales growth forecast to 7.1% from 12.9% previously to hit 867,000 units by end FY2013. It was BMI's view last year that the CV segment would easily outperform passenger car sales due to demand for construction and infrastructure projects and it played out well for us. While we do not think such strong growth rates will continue, we see no reason to be overly bearish on this segment.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- India Auto Industry SWOT
- India Political SWOT
- India Economic SWOT
- India Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
- UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform
- Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12
- Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Business Environment Ratings -- Auto Industry Asia Pacific
Regional Overview
- Japanese Autos: Outlining The Bear Case Alternatives
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: India - GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production And Sales
- Table: India Autos Sector - Sales And Production, 2009-2017
- Trade
- Table: India Autos - Trade, 2009-2017
- Industry Developments
Passenger Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis
- Production And Sales
- Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Cars, 2009-2017
- Company Developments
Commercial Vehicles - Forecast and Analysis
- Production And Sales
- Table: India Autos Sector - Commercial Vehicles, 2009-2017
- Company Developments
Motorcycles - Forecast and Analysis
- Production And Sales
- Table: India Autos Sector - Motorcycles, 2009-2017
- Company Developments
Automotive Suppliers - Analysis
- Segment Developments
- Company Developments
Company Monitor
- Mercedes Takes Knocked-Down Route To Asia
Company Profiles
- Hyundai
- Maruti Suzuki
- Tata Motors
- Mahindra and Mahindra
- Bajaj Auto
Demographic Outlook
- Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Automobile Industry
- Sources

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